2040 deadline for Diesel and Petrol cars.

As far as I can see, there is no ban on coke & coal envisaged, so I think steam cars will be back in vogue.

Was only reading Hasluck's book 'The Automobile' from 1903 ( **LINK** ). 868 pages on wheeled transport. An interesting statement was made, that electric cars would be confined to towns until adequate batteries could be developed. 114 years later, we're in the same state. They also had an interesting 'Petrol-Electric' car, with a petrol engine charging a battery, which drove the electric motor. Hybrids in 1903!

Regards,

Richard.

Pure political statement, many governments will come and go before then. No one will be around then who made the statement today to be held accountable for the decision, right or wrong.

Not real world evidence but both petrol and diesel have roughly the same energy in 1 litre as 10 kWhr. So your approximation of 1 unit per mile isn't far off assuming similar efficiencies between power sources.

The new big Tesla pack is 100kWh for about 350 mile range. On the face of it, that's going to cost you £15 to fill up, or about 4p a mile.

But of course charging isn't 100% efficient so I probably nearer to 5p a mile in the real world.

Neil

Is it just petrol and diesel that's going to be banned, or all forms of internal combustion engines? What about alcohol, or hydrogen and other gases as fuel? There really will have to be huge progress in battery technology if the proposed ban is going to work. Fortunately, if I live that long I will be 99 in 2040 so presumably not very interested in driving anywhere. And what about the future of road haulage? Has this really been thought through, or is it just politicians' waffle?

Edited By Mike on 26/07/2017 13:24:22

I wonder how the tax revenue lost from petrol and diesel sales will be generated. Michael

Thought through?

Politicians?!?

Fat chance.

Regards,

Richard

Michael, if politicians have any skills at all, they are all to do with screwing taxes out of folks like you and me, and spending the money irresponsibly. Don't kid yourself that they won't be able to think up a new tax.

I think they thought something through, introduce a policy that comes into force after we have retired ...

Ian,

The Outlander PHEV (assuming that's what your talking about) has a 12kW battery, it doesn't fully discharge. It takes about 10-11kW of electric to charge, which at 12p a kw = 11x12 = £1.32. Most people pay less than 12p I think - so basically, this is a worst case scenario.

The Outlander PHEV is designed to achieve 32 miles range all electric, the reality being 25 miles.

The standard diesel Outlander achieves about 38mpg in the real world (**LINK**)

Diesel costs £1.16 per litre (UK average) 4.546x£1.16 = £5.27 per UK gallon.

£5.27 in the diesel = 38 miles

£5.27 in the PHEV battery = 99.8 miles

2.62 times further on electric pound for pound in an Outlander PHEV running all electric vs all diesel.

The PHEV has a 2.0 litre petrol engine, not particularly efficient on its own. In the real world working with the hybrid power it achieves 60mpg,

Petrol costs £1.14 per litre (UK average) 4.546x£1.14 = £5.18 per UK gallon.

£5.18 in the petrol = 60 miles

£5.18 in the PHEV battery = 98.01

1.63 times further on electric pound for pound in an Outlander PHEV running all electric vs hybrid mode - and without any messing about recharging - I'd probably stick with Hybrid mode.

*sorry I got my wires crossed mid way though my train of thought - edited out*

For comparison, an all electric vehicle like the NIssan Leaf, has a 30kw batter and a 150mile range (110 in the real world I think) and something exotic like a Tesla Model S can have upto a 100kw battery, and their pickup trucks, even more is planned in the future.

Edited By Russ B on 26/07/2017 13:46:35

Just down the road from where I live a mini gas powered powerstation is being installed and as I went to collect a new gear for my M Type lathe from an industrial estate just north of Chesterfield the are installing another. What pollution do these give out and perhaps gas powered car's are the way to go.

David

it appears to me this is a cunning plan to force road freight onto rail, Which would be no bad thing as it is where it belongs - more rail infrastructure projects anyone?

They did exactly that in the 1950s as the main strategy for making the railways more money after Nationalisation

Ian Hyslops Off the Rails series is one of the most enjoyable I have ever watched

**LINK**

Edited By Ady1 on 26/07/2017 14:01:32

Just down the road from where I live there will shortly be a tiny gas-powered power station fuelled by the methane from a closed-down rubbish tip. I don't understand the chemistry of it all, so can someone explain the dangers of burning methane? On the gas-powered car tack, in the 1970s I drove an LPG-powered Ford Cortina from Lincolnshire to Glasgow and back, and recall that it was quite a pleasant experience. Wouldn't mind that as an alternative to electric motors and batteries.

Edited By Mike on 26/07/2017 14:51:14

No, you're quite right Andy. I saw an article on TV years ago saying the upper speed limit for Mag Lev trains would likely be around 700mph! Trains have always been the ultimate mid/long distance transport. We just need autonomous electric transport for short distances. What will the Arabs do with all their oil though?

Methane is a far worse greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, so burning it in controlled conditions to generate electricity is a big bonus. Nearly every small town in Germany seems to have a domestic waste incinerator which is used to generate heat and/or power. We used to do this years ago in the UK to heat swimming pols etc, but we now landfill. There is another process to convert organic wastes into synthetic natural gas. Before the Greenies jump in, with proper controls you don't produce nasty toxins in an incinerator.

Charging points fine if, when you get to the one the car advises, it's working and there isn't a queue. How well do electric cars do in hilly areas like Exmoor? I can understand they would be fine in cities.

Not too badly, they are great at climbing hills and regenerative braking on the way down means they get back some of the extra charge used in hill climbing.

Neil

Interesting times ahead. Oil is a finite resource, and, once it starts to run out, prices will rise. Given world demand and our heavy reliance on energy, the cost increases could be brutal.

The point at which oil extraction begins to drop is called 'peak oil'. Some authorities believe that peak oil was reached in 2006. Others suggest, 2012, 2016 or 2017. The most optimistic suggest 2040. The date is blurred because rising prices make it economic to exploit low yield reserves like Shale, and partly because a few new reserves have been found. However, the fact remains that oil as a commodity is unstoppably moving from cheap surplus to expensive shortage. We are in the danger zone. We don't really know how much oil is left in the ground and the change may be faster than expected. There is no guarantee of a soft landing.

You may recall the shock when OPEC temporarily reduced oil production for political reasons in the 1970s. What governments have to plan for now is much more serious, that is a permanent global shortage of humanities single most important resource. Oil shortages are likely to have wide ranging economic and political side-effects. One possibility is that personal transport will become unaffordable and we will have to revert to previous standards. The graph shows that today's levels of Car Ownership are a recent phenomenon. In 1951 nearly 90% households did not own a car. It's entirely possible over the next 20 years that car numbers will fall dramatically. Not because of smog, or because of short range batteries, or because no-one wants one, but simply because private transport will become unaffordable. First 3+ ownership will fall, then families will give up on owning 2 cars, and finally all but the very rich will be squeezed out.

Enjoy motoring while you can!

Dave

Well we live rather out in the sticks - no bus service ( well 2 a week if that counts!) no train service so running a car is essential. All our power is fed overhead. How will the power distribution network cope with the extra demand from everyone needing to charge their cars regularly?

Norman

Thought out - I think not....

Job losses

petrol station staff + maintenance staff for pumps etc

petrol tanker drivers + those who fill the tankers + those who maintain both vehicles and plants

"oil rig" workers

Garage staff (lower maintenance required)

etc

There is only one battery plant in Europe - currently running a 100% capacity

There is nowhere in Europe to dispose of old battery's - have to be sent to USA

and thats just for starters

Edited By Antony Powell on 26/07/2017 18:05:29