Volkswagen

Boss Herbert Diess recently said this:

German unions aren’t happy as he predicted up to 200,000 jobs could be lost in the coming years as they switch to EV production. The most obvious reason being EV’s (Tesla at least) have 1/6 the number of parts of old fashioned cars.

Full article Here

I also read recently that if car makers do not meet stringent EU CO2 targets the fines to manufacturers will on average be €1,430 for every car they sell. Total bill the article said would be in the region of €20 Billion.

They better start dropping the price so I buy one!

Was he referring to running costs, not initial capital expenditure?

There’s a link to the article.

The whole of life costs I think. Capital cost is higher up-front but running and maintenance costs lower.

The German Govenment grant of €9570 for a BEV rather skews things in the EVs favour & the ID4 having only around a quarter of the example Tiguans range would put off many. Of the examples given, only a base model ID4 may qualify of the UK grant of £2500 on qualifying vehicles with a RRP OTR of under £35K. The original German magazine article quotes depreciation guesstimates not shown in the link, which are higher for the EV than the ICE car.

The insurance estimates suggest that the EVs are cheaper to insure in Germany, but the opposite appears to the case here ?

Not sure running & maintenance costs lower - seen several suggestiions that BEV tyre wear is higher than ICE, brakes require un-siezing more often & coolant changes expensive. I have been tentatively looking at MG BEVs & some of the 3year service plan costs quoted on the owners forum are more than a 3 year plan for my current diesel Hyundai.

Nigel B.

The other issue is the cost of replacing the batteries. They will have a limited life, and the cost of replacement will be? I doesn't seem to be factored into the figures anywhere and from what I have seen of BEV construction it is going to be a far from trivial job to replace them.

Or are the cars themselves (rather like smartphones and tablets) considered disposable at the end of their batteries useful life?

Believe little of what you see, and less of what you hear and you just might get the real story.

To trust the pronouncements of Herbert Diess, the CEO who disingenuously claimed never to have heard of the Uighur detention camps in Xinjiang, where Volkswagen's factories had been operating for over thirty years, requires a suspension of disbelief I'm not always capable of.

As for Electrek, their disclosures section is telling:

"Disclosures. Some writers of Electrek maintain long positions in $TSLA, $SEDG, $NIU, $QS, $VWAGY and other green energy stocks."

Your comments are irrelevant and you’re choosing to miss the point that the original information came from Auto Zeitung a German Car Magazine which Herbert Diess confirmed.

The same comparison by Volvo completely reverses those figures towards ICE cars being the lesser polluting

for at least the first 7 years.

Has he missed out taxes in his calculation?

Road Mileage taxes?

More taxes on the electricity supply system?

Import taxes?

Save the planet VAT taxes?

Build the recharge system taxes?

(A pack of cigarrettes costs a quid with no taxes)

Edited By Ady1 on 28/11/2021 17:47:45

NO government will miss the opportunity to replace road fuel taxes with one on electricity for road use (If not general muse )

We are all human, so need to be aware of human nature, and the need (real or imagined ) to charge for something.

Howard

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We're racing about visiting places all over the place at the minute because I reckon that this is the final cheap time for motorists and in a decade or so the cost of going anywhere is going to be very silly

I was watching the men in sheds chap touring Sweden before covid and he was going around some fabulous destinations and their roads were deserted compared to here (I'm in Scotland not even England). Maybe they can't be bothered with the outdoors but I don't think that's how the Swedish do things if they have any choice

So it's do-it-while-you-can time IMO

10-20 years is typically quoted.

Manufacturers typically warrant their batteries for 100,000 miles.

Reports from high-mileage suers suggest that manufacturers' estimates of battery life are pessimistic.

The current generation of cars may need new packs from around 2030, by then the likely cost is expected to have fallen to a couple of thousands pounds for a smaller EV. Naturally cars with poor batteries will sell for less than cars with a new battery pack.

What may happen is that a new depreciation curve will emerge with a 'hump' for cars fitted with a second pack. Also expect affordable 'refurb' packs to appear that allow people with limited budgets to refresh high mileage cars, perhaps way past 200,000 or even 300,000 miles.

Neil

Manufacturers will find a way of making it next to impossible to swap battery packs. Otherwise the number of new cars needed will rapidly dwindle.

This leads to renting an EV car. a couple of years driving and opt for a new model. No spares, no new batteries, no probs.

No doubt they will come up with pink electricity to ensure that you are not using the domestic stuff and avoiding paying the appropriate tax.

Edited By Martin W on 30/11/2021 00:33:52

This is happening now - not just with EV's. The PCP deals or car buying effectively are a 3-year rental and swap for a new car. It's much like the 'need' for a new fancy phone every year or two for the latest (minor) improvement.
Until people and governments can get away from the mentality of consumerism for its own sake and bragging about their latest toy, then things won't change. I’m sure we all know someone who had to buy a new telly 'for the footie' and sits 8 feet away from a 65" or bigger screen in a tiny living room - while following social media discussion on their i-phone.

pgk

The first decent wind this year and 100,000 went without electricity for 'x' days.

And if they had all relied on their EV.................?

Alternatively, if they all had EVs with V2H (Vehicle to Home) then they wouldn't have been without power. This is part of the sales pitch to in the US for the F150 lightning.