Not the time to be complacent about Covid

I would like to urge all to remain vigilant about Covid and not let protection measures slip, it is all to easy to think that because of vaccination that it is conquered. For a few days now we haven’t had any post deliveries, neither has anyone in our close; today our daughter came round, she also lives in our village, she said do we know why there have been no post delivered, she proceeded to say that the postal sorting office in the village has had cases of Covid amongst the Posties so the sorting office is temporarily closed while they all recover. Ever since the start of Covid in our house any incoming letters or parcels are religiously wiped over with germ busting wipes before opening; it might seem a bit over the top to some but wife is in poor health with bad Asthma so we need to take measures to protect everyone in the house. In the light of the outbreak of virus in the sorting office it seems we were right to carry out protective measures, although government information had previously said there were no known cases of transmission by letters or parcels but then how many of us believe assurances given by government departments. We need to be aware that it is still a problem which appears now to be getting more problematic, Europe is again in the grip of a surge and we usually follow them albeit two to three weeks after. Dave W

At the EDMES club meeting on Friday we kept the chairs a bit extra spaced but not the full 2m and were getting a bit close during the coffee break. The ventilation made the room a bit chilly.

We are also reviewing the risk assessment at SADMES for the next meeting so it too could be a bit colder noting the current adverts suggesting periodic air changes to avoid build up.

I think it is not so much one individual event but that we are now are back to multiple gatherings per week, with all attendees also at multiple gatherings so the interactions multiply rapidly.

If its not outdoors I don't do it if I can avoid. Following our noble leader hardly anyone is wearing face masks, I still do, but I've given up washing all the food shopping. I still find it amazing that so many oldies, my brother in law included, are refusing jabs. It will cause friction with SwMBO if he ever turns up on our doorstep because he ain't coming in!

Austria has come up with the answer, A lockdown for 2 weeks for non vaccinated people.

The anti vaccs. are a problem as they are the transmitters and carriers.

Before relying on vaccines to protect you from catching Covid consider the following;

Vaccines give some level of resistance to infection, more importantly they offer protection from severe disease that may require hospitalisation or indeed mortality.

In some cases they can increase the chances of a very mild infection such there are no symptoms - this does not mean you cannot pass it on if so infected!

Vacination is a good idea to protect yourself from severe illness and potentially increase your immunity such that your chances of catching it are reduced. Being with another person that has been vaccinated is no gaurantee they are not infected, carrying or capable of passing on to you, in fact in some instances it can increase the risk they may be infected and niether of you know!

Paul.

The woodturning club I belong to has resumed meeting but you have to prove that you have had two jabs and that wearing masks until you are seated is compulsory seats are spaced apart.

As of yet I still have not been to one as I am playing safe. I also want to join the local engineering club but will wait until next year and then will look how things are.

Myself and the wife are both wearing masks when out but do remove them outside away from others

Surprised at the responses to my posting but heartened that you are all keeping up your protections. Wife and I haven’t visited a supermarket since the first lockdown began, we get weekly deliveries from the supermarket and if we have to go out always wear masks. I think those in charge are definitely letting the side down by appearing in the press without wearing masks, had to visit the dentist this week for treatment and was happy to see that they take Covid precautions very seriously, their practice waiting area used to be carpeted with good quality carpets but all had been removed and the whole premises now has vinyl flooring so it can all be swabbed down to reduce infection. My local beekeeping association has managed monthly meetings with Zoom to keep us all safe, have had some good online lectures during this time. Let’s hope we all keep safe. Dave W

Sorry Clive that is a load of old cobblers. The vaccine ( I have had 3 ) protects the individual from severe infection. . The vaccinated can ,and will spread the disease with the same facility as the un vaccinated. The un vaccinated assume the risk of severe disease for themselves, but present no excess risk to others. As severe disease is almost wholly defined by old age, and the over 70s have 94% vaccination cover (UK), the mainly young or stupid are almost irrelevant.

They are fools for themselves but place a small burden on society ,like drinkers or smokers or the obese. A greater risk IMHO are the self righteous, wrongly demonising a section of society and encouraging governments to enact draconian measures with little science or logic. Austria, why a curfew at 8pm? Nocturnal viral transmission?.

Austria is not the first country tyo use curfews and probably won't be the last but it's hard to see the logic.

I still wear a mask on buses and in shops - though I have forgotten once or twice!

My model-engineering society has booked a room for its forthcoming AGM, where we can sit reasonably spread apart. The club-room is a converted double-garage so a bit crowded when over 3/4 of the membership turn up for the AGM. (In normal times - remember those?)

One of my caving-clubs has announced to members that an annual, informal, inter-club award evening will go ahead this year. It usually crams the pub function-room it uses, so this time the circular contains this:

" We would be grateful if you would do a lateral flow test before coming and if positive or have Covid symptoms please stay away so as to try and protect our caving friends. "

That made me think of other events that can become very crowded, like the major model-engineering exhibitions...

I live in the Central US, and things are starting to become more normal.

In the big cities, perhaps 1/2 the people in the hardware store still wear masks.

In rural cities/areas, almost nobody wears masks, and they generally only did that for about a month at the height of the outbreak.

It seems that most have either had COVID already, or are confident that the vaccine will shield them.

Regardless, people are tired of the masks, endless lockdowns, hysteria, etc. and really don't care anymore, and so the masks are going away, along with any social distancing.

COVID rates are not increasing, in spite of mass gatherings and no mask wearing.

The red states are passing laws against discriminating against those without the "vaccine passport", and luckily my state is on of those.

Several notable people in town dropped dead after taking the vaccine, such as a nearby young surgeon at a hospital. Others have died that I know who were not vaccinated.

I don't know anyone who has become seriously ill after getting COVID and then taking either Ivermectin or Hydroxychloroquine. Ivermectin seems to be the treatment of choice these days, with a very high success rate.

The deep blue state governors are having their dictatorial never-ending lockdown policies overturned in court, an so the draconian rule is slowly grinding to a halt, and freedom is beginning to return.

People have had enough, and they just don't care anymore.

The football stadiums are packed with 60-100 thousand fans all over the country, and no major outbreaks, and no masks in sight anywhere.

The MSM gins up fake news about red state cases "skyrocketing", but when you try to find any real data, you find it is all smoke and mirrors, with the intent to drive the sheep to the vaccination centers.

Most engine shows have restarted, but I have heard that NAMES may cancel their 2022 show, which I think is very premature if they do.  Soule was held last weekend (home of the Speedy Twin).

Basically the pandemic is over in the US in all but the far blue/left states.

The blue states will be pandering pandemic porn foverver, because it is so politically useful, not because the lockdown states came out better than the non-lockdown states.

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I disagree that being vaccinated doesn't reduce the risk of you spreading the disease. Because your immune system is primed to fight the virus, you respond quicker and reduce the seriousness of the infection. As you therefore have a lower viral load you are shredding fewer virus particles reducing the risk of infecting others. Those not vaccinated also act as a reservoir for the virus.
However, antivaxxers seem to like using the argument that you can still spread it as a reason not to get the jab. One thing that has become apparent is how little people understand about risk and medical intervention. All medical interventions carry a risk, but hopefully this is less than the risk of the medical problem. Just because someone who was vaccinated gets COVID doesn't mean that the vaccine doesn't work overall.

The symptoms of the disease are not caused by the disease per se, but your immune systems response to it. Indeed in some cases death is caused by the immune systems over reaction and not the disease. Our complex genetic makeup means that some are more susceptible.
All you can do is protect yourself as best you can.

Dave

I think we are ahead of Europe. A month ago we were around 40000 daily cases and rising. Europe had very few cases.

Otherwise I agree with all except PatJ, just expect the next wave. Possibly the only "good" thing will be fewer deaths. Personally I would like Christmas back (not the shopping but to see the family).

JA

Despite having the third stab, my shopping habits will remain namely 7.15am at the big M, wearing a 99.9% useless face screen but it seems to reassure others. OK, vaccinations should be free choice BUT in the event of covid contraction, so should Hospitals right to refuse admission OR charge for treatment. Despite a direct contribution levied into the price of a packet of fags, some doctors were refusing to treat smokers and it was vented the same for obese patients.

Regards Ian.

I agree it is no time to be complacent, but we have to face the reality of how 'semi-normal-life' is going to continue for the majority. Let me say I am strongly for jabs and for protection measures in case anyone misreads my next few words.

Covid-19 is not going to disappear and the choice is to either hide yourself away for the rest of your life or to use science to minimise your risk of serious illness or death. I will say I have the most sympathy for any who are medically unable to benefit from vaccination and will have to stay isolated.

Personally, once we have had our third jabs in a few days, and those have settled for a couple of weeks, my wife and I are going to go back to attending the local gym and going to social club nights (where the younger generation regard the infection as all finished!). With the best immunisation we might ever have we almost hope that we will get small doses of the virus so that our bodies learn to cope with it - and in future further infections will keep the body's defences up. It will also help to get back to catching occasional colds as they also prepare the body for generic coronaviruses. That's our decision as 70 year olds, if you are approaching 90 I agree it is a different calculation.

Science thinks that covid-19 will become less lethal with time, but still as infectious, and we will eventually think of it as one of the common cold infections. There might well be an annual covid jab that is partly effective against all coronaviruses (including common colds) and flu combined.

The majority of the UK population is putting itself through this infection and body defence change now. The people doing it without vaccination are the daft ones. Depending on your age and personal risk it might be sensible to delay joining in, but it comes down to a decision of hiding away for ever, or making a choice to get back to some life experience.

Norm, I hear what you are saying about Covid becoming less lethal with time and the virus evolving, I suppose we can liken it to the influenza virus and it’s devastating impact in 1918, flu has now become commonplace every winter and we vaccinate annually against it, there are many different strains of flu, some more dangerous than others and Covid will probably likewise evolve. Having a flu vaccination doesn’t mean you won’t get flu, if you are unlucky enough to get the flu having had the vaccine will in all probability be less problematic than if you hadn’t had a vaccine. In the January before Covid took off I caught flu, had my vaccination but it caused me to be hospitalised for four days with pneumonia as a consequence, we need to remember that every winter about 20,000 are expected to die from the effects of influenza, so vaccination for us oldies vitally important. Tonight our local beekeeping association is holding its AGM and being a committee member I am expected to attend. Precautions will be taken, everyone will be masked, social distancing will be enforced and the premises will be well ventilated with windows open, I shall still be nervous about being with a number of people indoors. Dave W

Ignorance is bliss? Having had Covid once doesn't mean you can't catch it again. The benefit of the vaccine is to reduce the consequences: it doesn't shield anyone, or stop them passing the virus on. Has no-one explained in the US that the vaccine wears off and needs to be boosted? Or that the virus mutates into new forms, potentially requiring different vaccine?

Can't speak for statistics in the USA but the rest of the world reports illness and deaths rising and falling in successive waves: you can't assume a local downturn means anything, at the moment Covid rates are rising and falling. It depends where you are, and in no way is the pandemic 'over' yet. Not knowing anyone personally who has had Covid is statistically meaningless, as is hearsay about cure's such as Ivermectin or Hydroxychloroquine.

To understand what's happening it's necessary to grip information on an international scale, tracking what the virus is doing around the world. Agreed the pandemic seems to be slackening off, but the way it keeps coming back is a worry,

II find treating Covid as a political issue very odd, because the virus doesn't give a hoot about politics. It's a pandemic, not a left-wing conspiracy! Seems to me getting into a flap about 'freedom' is pretty daft when fighting a contagious illness. And being fed up with the whole shebang doesn't help either. Have Americans forgotten the price of peace is eternal vigilance?

As the virus transmits between people in groups, it makes sense for individuals to reduce interpersonal contact, wear masks, and get jabbed etc. I have to say denying there's a problem and arguing with one's fellow countrymen rather than taking a few simple health measures seems like bad tactics when the real enemy is a virus.

Dave

A few words about Austria and covid - as I am currently in Vienna. I have never seen such discipline in wearing masks in the UK, everybody here wears an FFP2 (known as KN93 in the UK) mask in public transport, in every shop, in every supermarket. Pubs and restaurants check each person for vaccination records before you can order, and this was all happening before the 2 week lockdown started. If you want to enter a hospital you need a vaccination report plus a PCR test, not older than 48 hours. I had now 10 PCR tests done as my mum is in hospital (reason for me being here).

On the other hand the vaccination rate is not as high as in the UK, there are a number of anti vax people around. What doesn't help is that a political party leader and a sports celebrity throwing their anti vax statements over the media (yes, even the state broadcasting channels).

We will see if the 2 week lockdown helps, so far it creates protests and of course the local shopkeepers and restaurant owners are not particularly happy.

Looking forward to come back to the UK and my workshop. My wife told me that there were 2 deliveries from Reeves, so it is about time to go home.... Wish me luck so I do not get tested positive on my last day here....

I found this to be an interesting and informative article. Amongst other things it summarises how the virus utilises mutation in order to remain an effective threat to us, its hosts: Coronavirus - one step ahead


https://nautil.us/issue/108/change/how-the-coronavirus-stays-one-step-ahead-of-us?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

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It seems beekeepers were uniquely pre-prepared for the pandemic. Just tell everyone coming to the meeting that a hive will be placed in the room and regularly poked with a stick.

The purpose of 8pm curfew as questioned above is to curtail social interactions by discouraging dining out and bar visits with the reduction in precautions brought on by intoxication.

Gerhard, sorry that ill health visiting your family. I did smirk at the paradox of obsessive mask wearing and a lockdown.

I am a compliant member of society wry this disease, but I still bridle at the hysteria. The latest data for Scotland is that last winter produced the second highest excess mortality in 30 years. That is right even with an increased population now there was a winter in living memory with more winter deaths than this Covid winter. Last year 23,370 was the excess winter deaths, 4,300 more than average. Roughly half are attributed to Covid in the official statistics. The other half showed no clear pattern. However last week a professor of chest medicine gave evidence to a parliamentary select committee, that lung cancer diagnosis had been set back 25 years by a return to late diagnosis and advanced disease.

IIRC this rough equity of direct to indirect effects of disease is very similar to the W Africa Ebola experience. A much nastier disease with a 35% mortality (UK Covid 0.19% , not the 0.9% modelled by Imperial College "The Scientists" in March), was so terrifying that the knock on effects through migration etc resulted in high secondary mortality.

While I like SOD I deplore its party politicisation only a fool would point to the USA as unique in this respect.

Only a heartless fool would suggest ,even as I assume made in jest, denying treatment to the unvaccinated as a policy of victim shaming based on the totally false "doctors have refused to treat the fat or smokers"narrative. This and the derisive term "anitvaxxers" should be treated as the discredited portmanteau "deplorables". Let us have sensible debates free from the new obsession of name calling those who hold differing views.