Sea level rise

The problems of rising sea levels seem to be taking a back seat at COP26.

I have just been reading a science fiction book written in the 1950s that explores the possible consequences of the melting of the polar ice caps. Even though he uses aliens do do the deed rather than humans it is food for thought!

The book is The Kraken Wakes by John Wyndham. Well worth a read.

Russell

The Arctic Polar Ice-cap melting would not affect sea-levels as it is only sea-ice; and not very thick. The seals and polar bears won't be very happy though.

It's terrestrial ice such as that covering Greeland and the Antarctic continent, and on high mountains, that makes the difference.

The last interglacial saw sea-levels around 10m above present (maybe more?) - though no-one's predicting that.

Nothing we do will stop the poles melting, it's been going on for over 10,000 years

less environmental pollution would be nice, but it won't change anything

We're in the same boat as the cavemen were, we are in the hands of the gods

Intruiging to watch a belief system evolve from scratch though, like communism or fascism, the erosion of freedoms, the suppression of debate, the avoidance of reality

relatively low level stuff compared with other cults of course, but interesting nonetheless

It's not just melting ice but thermal expamsion too. All the figures quoted are mean sea level rise but local conditions han make things worse. Take the North sea. With a combination of high tides, sea level increase and both high winds and low pressures, both of which are likely to become more extreme and you get ideal conditions for major sea encroachments.

regards Martin

It appears that the experts are saying that the Earths Temperature about 40,000,000 years ago was a lot lower than today, I have a question for those that are involved, how did they know the temperature? did they have THERMOMETERS in those days?

Still uses the same old babble though, like a five thousand year old snake oil salesman

A bible of babble truths which are inviolate, plus

You must repent and believe in the new saviour... or you are doomed

plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose, the more things change the more they stay the same

oxygen isotope ratios in the tests of microfossils are used as a proxy for ancient temperatures. Water with O16 is preferntially evaporated over water with O18. The higher the water temperature the higher the ratio of O18 to 16 in the tests. The higher the temperature the greater the rate of evaporation. Calibration of the relationship uses corals.

Why does no one ever mention that in many parts of the world it is the ground that is sinking not sea level rising, coral atolls being a classic example, the SE of England another.

Edited By Mr C on 10/11/2021 18:23:22

What is more serious is that they ignored the problem of overpopulation. There will be a big famine, probably around 2035 then the really big one around 2055.
What is inevitable is that humans will become extinct. The only remaining question is how long they manage to hold out but a planned decline would be better than a catastrophic one.

Malthus said much the same in 1798. Hasn't happened on a global scale. Most developed countries have stable or even declining populations. The rate of population growth is declining.

Richard - Of course there were no thermometers 40Ma - nor humans either. They calculate the temperatures from the lingering physical and chemical effects preserved in sediments, ocean-floor cores, cave deposits, fossils (as Mr.C. says) etc. And with due allowance for measurement and arithmetical tolerances.

'

Mr. C. - A good point, about land areas sinking, though generally the rate of subsidence is a lot lower than the rate of water rise.

As SE England sinks, NW Scotland rises - more specifically it is probably from the NW European continental plate we occupy, still very slightly rebounding from having depressed by ice-sheet load in the last glaciation.

Southern England was not glaciated, but shivered in Arctic Tundra conditions; and effectively the NW corner of the plate was loaded as a cantilever, bending it down into the soft Mantle. The ice-sheet's thaw and consequent unloading on Scandinavia produced earthquakes even in historical times, but this "isostatic rebound" is now considered ended in that region.

Load? Just 1 square km of ice-cover a modest 1km thick weighs about 9 X 10^8 t.

Malthus' calculations were probably not wrong as such, for his time, but he had to rely on the evidence and statistics available then. The overall world-wide population is still rising, irrespective of regional variations. Not only that but many millions of people lead very deprived lives and naturally want the necessities we too easily take for granted, so the overall drain of resources is increasing.

'

Bazyle - How did you, or whowever did, forecast those famines? Quoting almost-definite years is not a very safe way to predict anything, but we won't make ourselves extinct. By the natural way of things our species has about another 2-3m years to go (by the mean life-span of a mammalian species), but of course we have it in "our" power to reduce that considerably.

However, I don't think we will drive ourselves into extinction as you seem to imply, even with massive death-rates through famine, drought and disease - and wars. Plenty will survive, and ironically it might be the least-"developed" societies in the most remote regions who have the best chances of survival.

We know there's a problem - we've known it since about the 1950s - but we don't know the balance between the costs and practicalities for different groups of humans of the myriad of labyrinthine answers proposed by experts whose qualifications, prejudices, political, career and financial interests most of us aren't in a position objectively to examine.

Despite the vast mass of rhetoric, and the inarticulate and unhelpful rage of some activists, the fact is that humanity will have to muddle through somehow.

Or not.

It's when it goes down you have to worry

Overpopulation

That's the real challenge for the next 100+ years

I hope reincarnation doesn't exist...

It is the hypocrisy of the zealots that makes me smile. The ABC bang on about climate warming morning, noon and night, the desire for electric cars, etc., but the first thing they all want to do is jet off overseas as soon as the borders open. And apparently Australia was rated the worst country for climate inaction! They didn’t say by whom or by what criteria. No mention of China.
On a point of accuracy, when they say action on climate change, they always should say action on emissions.
Never any mention of global population.

Nigel

I see that you like others believe that things like calculation as you say give us the answers, did experts know how to calculate prior to the invention of the computer, as the computer is basically an adding machine it can only give results to what is entered whether that is the truth or what people think.

I was always told that nature will always maintain a balance of what the world can sustain either by famine flood or disease. My mothers uncle always said that Nature will feed you, nature will clothe you, nature will cure you, and nature will kill you.  As a youngster he used to take out in the countryside,  I thought I was learning natural history, I realised since that all I knew was what you could eat or use medically

Roy

Edited By roy entwistle on 10/11/2021 21:45:50

Ady - I agree, though it's not our only woe. The trouble is that it is the most sensitive woe of the lot, and would I think prove the hardest to solve.

Simon - I'm concerned less by the hypocracy though as you say it's certaily there, than by the level of technical ignorance and knee-jerkery when it comes to trying to find realistic solutions by thinking beyond the immediately obvious. As for China... there has been plenty of mention of China but the world as a whole probably has little more influence over that country than you and I do.

Richard - I don't know the point you are trying to make, especially on a forum so dedicated to a discipline based on science and mathematics accumulating from well before electronic computers. Besides, you can have the most sophisticated computer in the world, even able to run Microsoft 13, but it will not perform complex mathematics if its programmer does not understand those mathematics even before turning them into " computerese " .

Roy - I reckon your mother's uncle had a point even if his knowledge was actually far thinner than he imagined. What we are seeing though is the result of humanity believing for some 200 years that it could "tame Nature" - a common phrase even as recently as the 1960s, as I recall.

Rich countries have stable or low population growth

Poor countries double their population every 30 years

So we need to make everyone a 1st world rich country

So lets get going and build more factories etc

Australia's been in the news because it's the largest consumer of coal per head in the world and they talked nonsense at COP26. Not burned locally, most of it is exported to China, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan.

Australia is blessed with huge coal-fields. They produce something over 500,000,000 tons of coal each year, with production growing at about 2% per year despite concern about Global Warming.

As a country, Australia puts making money from selling coal above all objections. Ironic because Australia is geographically badly placed in terms of climate change and are already seeing bouts of unusually severe hot weather and protracted droughts. I predict in twenty years time Australians will vilify the current leadership's short-term decision making.

Population is something of a red-herring because the poor contribute relatively little to Climate Change. To make a difference, it's the 10% of humanity who are consuming 90% of the worlds resources who need to change their ways: rich folk in the developed world. Unfortunately, we are all greedy hypocrites and it's amazing hard to give up wealth and power. Like a monkey stuck with his hand in the Biscuit Jar, we can't let go...

Dave