Coronavirus

The averaged age of the Italian population is 45.4 years against ours (Brits) which is 40 years, hence there are a lot more older Italians therefore a higher incidence of deaths. As they say there are many ways of reading statistics.

Roger

Hi Geoff. If you make it to Cairns let me know and we can catch up for a coffee down on the esplanade. Plenty of seats since they shut the gate from China. Very quiet indeed. Enjoy the Perth weather. Should be lovely this time of year.

Pete

(PS I'll let you know if I need you to bring an emergency shipment of toilet paper from Perth. Although, I calculated the half-dozen rolls I have in stock should last me at current rate until end of July!)

Edited By Hopper on 12/03/2020 01:47:42

I am the co-ordinator for a Day Club.

Basically a place for elderly residents of Albury/Wodonga to spend a few hours each week enjoying each others company, playing games, gently exercising and answering simple quizzes for mental stimulation. Sponsored by the Department Of Veteran's Affairs (an Australian Government entity)

The average age of our members is about 78 years old.

After consulting with the other volunteers we decided that if/when the local schools in Albury/Wodonga are directed to close down then our little club shall do the same and resume when it is announced that the schools are open again.

This was a difficult decision to make but as the elderly are much more vulnerable than the younger generation this seems like the best solution to a potential nasty problem.

* Danny M *

The Feral Gumment has just announced they will give a $750 payment to all us pensioners to stimulate the tanking economy brought on by coronavirus. We are told we should spend it, not save it, in order to stimulate the shopkeepers etc. So what new workshop equipment do I need? Hmm.

After this summer I reckon a 5kW split system air-conditioner for the workshop is top of the list. No point in getting more equipment I can't use for 4 months a year due to heat, even with insulation in the shed.

Edited By Hopper on 12/03/2020 09:53:08

Here we have a newly mutated virus to which the human immune system doesn't have a defence yet. The virus spreads rather easily and is moderately nasty, killing between 1% and 7% of those who catch it after about 14 days. There is no cure, but several effective palliatives. It appears most dangerous to elderly persons who already have a serious health condition.

I've only seen figures for China where it took 20 days for the number infected to rise from about 500 to about 40000. If I've done the sums right, the number of patients infected doubles every six days or so. But, the spread in China and other countries has been slowed by aggressive containment measures - it hasn't accelerated into the population anywhere yet.

Left unmanaged a virus will spread freely until it can't find any fresh hosts. Although everyone risks catching it, not everyone will get it, and not everyone will spread it. People who have recovered cease to be fresh hosts and tend to stop the spread. So the epidemic will peak and subside, perhaps taking 2 or 3 months. (Modelling the disease is a job for experts!)

Worst case, 80% of the population will get it and - if UK mortality reached Italian levels - there would about 2.9 million deaths here. More realistically, 40% of the population will get it and mortality will be only be 1%, resulting in about 240,000 deaths. (UK normal mortality: 56000 people died here in the month January 2020.)

Hand-washing reduces the likelihood of spreading but isn't as effective as isolating all those who have been in contact with an infectious victim. Testing is vital because it allows new infectious contacts to avoid others, thus snubbing viral progress. However, it is all but impossible to stop a viral epidemic because there are so many different ways it can spread - we have to eat, see doctors, relatives and work etc. It will spread, and 40% to 50% of us catching it isn't unlikely.

Government tactics appear to be aimed at extending the time it takes the virus to achieve full penetration rather than ensuring everyone will be fully treated on demand. If the virus is allowed free rein the sheer number of severe cases arriving in a short space of time is likely to overwhelm the Health Service. That's like the flood defences failing. However, if the epidemic is spread over several months, the Health Service should be able to cope.

No need to panic, but I think we will have to tough it out somewhat.

Dave

I have had requests for this thread to be locked.

It is easy to say that those who find its content worry and disturbing should not follow this thread. However, in the current situation this forum and thread might be one of the few places where some of us can comfortably discuss their concerns and thoughts with people in a similar situation.

Indeed for any of us who have to self-isolate (which may well end up being most of us) forums like this could be our main human contact for several weeks.

I realise that the flip side of this is that some of the posts and thoughts can be quite frightening, especially when people start extrapolating mortality rates etc. Also some people are posting things that are clearly wrong from 'mortality rates' to saying the human immune system has no defence against the virus (how can that be if the great majority, of all ages, recover?)

So while I want this thread to continue, please consider the feelings of those who are particularly worried or stressed and are depending on this forum to keep abreast of the situation.

Please keep things factual, try to be optimistic (it seems some anti-malarials and anti-virals show promise as treatments). No doubt at some point ether will be sad news, but there should be much more good news.

Let's all pull together and try and help all forum members through this.

Thanks

Neil

Don’t forget to wash your hands after signing the couriers touch screen with your finger or use your own stylus.

Mike

Every generation gets a challenge, it's defining moment/period in time

Like it or not, It's what makes the human race stronger

We've had it dead easy peasy since when? 1960? what a doddle.

So we can't really complain about our lot

If I had to choose when to exist over the last 100,000 years of human struggle, I would still pick here and now

I am on an immuno suppressant drug and am going to self isolate for the time being. On the rare occasion I have to go out I will wear thin latex gloves and dispose them on my return. my good neighbours will shop for me. Good health to all forum members.

A classic case of "KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON".

Seriously. Those posters originated in times far more dire than this. Ady1 is right. We have been exceptionally lucky to live in such good times -- and still are. 

Edited By Hopper on 12/03/2020 12:08:54

I have just come off a call to a work colleague in the Milan area. Police cars are touring the streets with tannoys telling people not to leave their houses unless essential. Buying food means queueing two metres apart outside the supermarket with only one person allowed in at a time. Restautants and bars are closed. Not even funeral services are allowed.

Good to have neighbours like that. All the best of health to you too.

With four more cases reported in Wales today it looks like it will reach us in Gwynedd fairly soon. We will do a bit of shopping and sit tight.

A microbiologist friend forwarded to me a communication from a prof. who had done a lot of research work on corona viruses: the guy knows a thing or two. His advice is pretty standard - gloves, hand washing, isolation, etc., and masks. I had always thought that masks were largely a psychological boost, being unable to filter out viruses, but his letter provided a lightbulb moment.

Masks are to stop you putting your contaminated hands into your nose and mouth! You should also avoid touching your eyes. It seems that hand-to-face contact is the most likely infection route.

Sadly, more evidence that bureaucracy exists for its own sake, in spite of demonstrably poor performance: the World Health Organization must have a huge budget, but hasn't been able to roll out a co-ordinated international response, even though one might have thought that pandemic planning would have been an important part of its work, for decades.

Edited By Kiwi Bloke on 12/03/2020 20:22:49

Not entirely fair as WHO is not an enforcement agency, they cant make other countries carry out mitigating actions, and differing countries will have differing resources and political tools. China has done well, they have the tools and the social culture that can deliver an effective response.

If you want a real example of demonstrably poor performance look to the wealthiest and most powerful nation on earth - sad, so sad.

As a species overall we seem to suffer what one could euphemistically refer to as 'learning difficulties'. Pandemics and plagues are not new and the methods of control are as old as time, and yet the same mistakes invariably made - response is always too slow, the infective agent becomes established in the population and events must take their course.

We got the UK plan B briefing this afternoon, pretty logical and in line with what has worked for every outbreak from the Black Death onwards. Essentially if you feel ill, stay in your house till you get better, don't tell the grown ups because we need to conserve resources for the really ill.

He didn't actually say nail up the front door and paint a red cross on it but I guess that is because we have other means of communication these days.....

Of more concern to me -- at the moment and that doubtless may change in time -- is the effect its having on the stockmarkets and even bonds and the flow on effects to retirement funds. I'm never going to get that new milling machine if the Dow Jones keeps dumping like yesterday's 9.9 per cent. We live in intetesting times.

Factoring in inflation and my pension planning had just about recovered from the 2008 crash - following the typical 10 year pattern for doubling prices and market recoveries. That crash was handled by business pulling it;s horns in and waiting. This time may well be different with no real fiscal manoeuvers left and a loss of personnel across the board rather then at the businesses choice. The principles of trading without reserves affected mainly the banks last time. This time it's going to collapse a whole slew of businesses with the obvious entertainment and holiday co's first, travel and conferences and hotels, cafes and restaurants going under and a whole lot of pain for those folk already struggling with debt who are too sick to work.
Society should use the 'opportunity' to restructure itself away from the self-indulgence it's used to and back towards the '50s restraints - but it doesn't learn. We'll be back to pollution and waste as soon as possible.

Hunkering down at home works short term but if it;s true that the virus survives on surfaces for 3 days and can infect vai that route then soon all supermarket goods will be contaminated with no way to hide.

The wife has a bad cough and I have never had so much time in the shed for weeks as what else do you do as we are self isolating. No collecting granddaughter from school, no shopping for clothes no visiting mother in law as she is in hospital and don't want her infected. Suppose I should go and get on with a bit of painting of new lathe parts in shed.

David