How Much is this Costing Me?

Think outside the box (!) - you might have a dead cat.

One of these fine days, the youngsters will realise that the UK is actually made of coal.

When they get cold and fed up, they'll figure out how to get it out of the ground and how to keep warm by it.

Good luck to them. If I'm lucky, they might even figure it out before I fade away.

The youngsters aren't going to get cold. We and our recent ancestors have warmed things up to the point that cold, in this country, is a thing of the past.

No more ice fairs on the Thames, I'm afraid.

1. (Demand has risen) - has it? Limiting this to energy and comparing 2022 demand to 2019, has demand risen significantly? The overall demand may have risen slightly in the UK but certainly not in the order of magnitude to rising costs. Globally the demand for gas has risen compared to 2019 particularly in Asia where there are many new gas powered generating plants coming on line. There was an article in the economist earlier in the year suggesting that if Asia demand for gas continues on its current trajectory by 2025 (if I remember the date correctly) their requirement would equal the entire world production in 2019. a (holidays) is irrelevant, aviation demand for fuel has not yet returned to 2019 levels. b not really relevant as returning to full production only takes us back to where we were in 2019 and in fact many areas world wide have not returned to full production (chips). c nonsense non specific reason.

2. (Supply has fallen) - a true in the UK with regard to coal fired power stations and also lack of investment in nuclear with no clear plan as to how to replace the declining fossil fuelled producers with green solutions in the UK to meet demand without relying on imports (see below). b true as although we were not taking large amounts of Russian gas we did end up even indirectly taking oil and believe it or not coal (it’s not green to dig our own but ok to take someone else’s already dug). c nonsense non specific reason.

The clear answer is UK is an island but not a self sufficient island insulated from global impacts. While we may have only taken a small percentage of gas from Russia we took a significant amount from other sources in the world (Isle of Grain gas terminal with LPG tankers pitching up weekly!). Because these other sources have no come under pressure the supply / demand economic argument comes into play - because there are more customers for the available product the supplier is able to charge a premium. Same scenario with oil. On imported electricity as the exporters are under pressure at home (Europe) they are not of a mind to sell electricity they also need cheaply - remember the recent record price for a short period in the heatwave? If someone is digging you out of a hole you generally have to pay for it!

When the oil price went negative for a short period during covid no one was screaming out to recompense oil companies for losses and yet now it has risen and is at a premium (now dropping again) everyone is complaining about profits. Also with retailers it’s worth noting that it is usual practice in the oil / fuel market to hedge or buy forward, poor decisions or gambles committing to many tonnes of product when the price was high means it needs to be sold high.

There is no great mystery to any of it.

Paul.

Seems that may have issues with cuts on top of fuel costs to worry about in the coming winter months.

Power

Edited By V8Eng on 09/08/2022 23:51:42

Nice post. I've been waiting for an update on that for a couple of weeks now.

Damn. Is my arts degree showing again? It's always philosophy day in my workshop.

But this is not philosophy. It is science. See quantum physics, Steven Hawking, M-Theory and "model-dependent realism".

The latter includes the agreed upon models we use to navigate in the world, (eg Newtons laws of motion) and it works for everyday situations. But that does not mean it is a true or even accurate depiction of what reality actually is, the scientists say (as Newton's laws have been disproved by quantum physics). And that reality may not be just one reality, but a number of different realities that exist simultaneously, the scientists say.

Yours philosophically -- Hopper

I was in a similar position, although my hot water comes via a hot-water cylinder. Feed to kitchen was via a 22mm copper pipe buried in a concrete floor slab (done by a previous owner). Might have made sense with cheap energy and sink/washing machine/dishwasher to feed but a real pain now that w/m has been moved, d/w is cold-fill only. Couple of weeks ago I ran a 15mm plastic pipe complete with insulation from cylinder to sink. Saves water/time/energy. Doubt if the payback time makes strict economic sense but £35 in materials was worth the increased convenience.

I guess it's a very small-scale example of "invest now to save later" decision-making that it would be good to see at a national level?

Latest quotation from existing household insurance company just hit the mat. With no change in building or contents insured value, 'New' three year fixed price contract shows an increase of more than fifty percent on existing charge. We are, at this point in time 'In consultation'

Regards Ian.

Brain...? electro-chemical signals...?

Aren't these also part of the fairy story?

Martin.

Insurance companies seem well aware of the how to boil a frog principle, a quote just dropped through my door for home insurance of £380, a quick visit to the meerkat had quotes for buildings and contents ranging from £75. I won’t be paying £380 or £75 but plenty of recognisable companies in the lower to middle range of quotes.

Mike

The idea there's a lot of coal under the UK is wrong. Used to be true but most of it was mined before 1960 and god isn't making any more! About 1830 it was predicted British coal would last about 150 years and the Victorian estimate wasn't far wrong.

Facts are always a better foundation than wishful thinking. In fact, UK coal reserves are about 77 million tons. (Reported in 2016). Britain has less than 0.1% of world coal reserves, a little more than Afghanistan, and rather less than Zaire. New Zealand has much more coal than we do, but they're also paupers.

Basing UK energy policy on the assumption plenty of coal is available locally would be a terrible mistake.

Dave

UK coal reserves depend on which document you read and on relative accessibility quite apart from environmental aspects.
The UK has identified hard coal resources of 3 910 million tonnes, although total resources could be as large as 187 billion tonnes. There are 33 million tonnes of economically recoverable reserves available at operational and permitted mines, plus a further 344 million tonnes at mines in planning. There are also about 1 000 million tonnes of lignite resources, mainly in Northern Ireland, although no lignite is mined.
https://euracoal.eu/info/country-profiles/united-kingdom/
link

The site you link to bills itself as "The Voice of Coal in Europe" so is not an unbiased source.

The source Dave (SOD) linked to, Worldometer, is an unbiased stat site in my experience.

Consider yourself fortunate. My house and contents insurance is $2,500 a year, about 1250 Quid. I expect it will be going up astronomically next year as the insurers have to pay out massively for widespread floods in Australia this year, and the stockmarket is down -- which is how insurance companies make much of their profit by investing the premiums pool they sit on awaiting payouts to claims.

Worldometer usually take their figures from government publications and very much dependant on how those figures were arrived at. Agree the link I used is biased and will include uneconomic sources...but they are only uneconomic at today's price. I see no reason to doubt the underlying geology. If memory serves there are undersea seams in our waters too. Equally greenwashing and pushing public opinion colours gov figures. What is daft is importing coal instead of using our own.

One of our biggest imports of coal was from Russia, presumably that’s not happening now. As stated makes no sense as we have vast reserves to stop mining our own, before the Green Lobby start gnashing their teeth coal is used in various industries it’s not just burnt in power stations, there are many useful chemical compounds derived from coal that we will still need. Dave W

I've just checked my power meter for my shed (12' x 10' wood construction, partly insulated) I've used just over £600 in 4 years and that includes heating (2.5kw radiator), so £150 a year.

I thought it would be more, at today's rates that would be around £300 (I've not updated the electric rates for a year or two...)

Given \I use around £100 worth of petrol a week, the shed use looks ok!

Jim

Interesting to see such different numbers. I suspect Worldometer are reporting recoverable coal and Voice of Coal are reporting all coal, whether recoverable or not.

For example, Voice of Coal report 1 billion tons in Northern Ireland, about 20% of the UK total. Other surveys suggest 600 million tons but everyone agrees It's Lignite. Lignite or 'brown coal' is the lowest form of coal. It's up to 30% carbon and wet, completely useless for running steam engines or steel-making. But it could be burned in a coal power station built on top of a large strip mine. No-one in Northern Ireland wants it. Not an easy win for coal, and I suspect the deposit isn't considered 'recoverable' for policy reasons.

Thin seams deep underground are another reason UK coal isn't recoverable. The Durham Mining Museum has lots of information about coal mining in the North of England, including details of coal seams detected by shafts. Picked at random, the Elemore Colliery was about 5 miles from Durham. Opened in 1825, main seam exhausted in 1892, became part of a larger complex for drainage and ventilation until the group closed in 1972. 165 known deaths.

The coal:

• At 67metres deep, a 0.7m of coarse slaty coal. 0.53m of coal at 69m & 0.58m at 70m
• Seam 0.15m thick at 72m
• 0.38m seam at 94m & 0.36m at 108m
• 125m down is 1.83m of coal three thick seams, separated by only 0.56m of rubbish
• At 149m, a seam 0.18m thick
• And at 172.2 metres. another layer of profitable coal - 1.73m

How much is left? Depends on the value of coal versus the cost of recovery, but the outlook in this example is grim. I suspect the top 3 seams were extracted in the early 19th century because 1.82m of coal was mixed with only 0.86m of muck.

The thin 0.15m layer is likely intact because mining it requires huge amount of waste to be removed. The economics are still poor: would anyone today dig a 72 metre shaft in order to exploit a coal seam only 0.17m thick? Possibly in future, but only if coal becomes massively more expensive.

The 0.36 and 0.38m seams are marginal. I suspect they're still there because getting the coal out when the mine was operating meant a lot muck had to be removed with it. Not much return for a lot of work. Today, the economics of a 100m deep shaft to reach two thin seams are poor.

The thin seam at 149m is almost certainly untouched, but retrieving it would be seriously expensive. Too much rubbish has to be lifted out for not much coal.

Quite a lot of the two big seams may still be available. Early miners used the pillar & stall method. Even though the pillars were aggressively thinned out as the mine reached end of life, a lot of coal is left behind - it holds up the roof! If old galleries are close to the surface, it's possible now to get the coal by strip mining - modern earth moving equipment is very capable. But strip mining gets gets more damaging to the surface and expensive with depth. Digging out a 172m deep strip mine might be viable in the wilds of Australia, but the Durham area is heavily populated! (Southerners won't care if County Durham and most of Yorkshire are strip mined, but locals will make a silly fuss.)

Later the longwall method was used. Almost all the coal is removed, so what's left isn't worth reworking. There are no pillars. Instead the roof is carefully collapsed behind the working face as it moves forward.

Whichever method was used the ground is left badly weakened and full of water filled voids. They are extremely dangerous to approach with new tunnels seeking untouched coal, and the cost severely limits what's practically recoverable.

This website shows most UK coal mines dug in modern times. There are a lot them! As our forefathers did a good job removing all the coal they could, knew where to dig, and thoroughly churned up the ground, there isn't a massive amount of easily extracted coal left in the UK. I think Voice of Coal are glossing over that in order to encourage investment. There is coal, but not as much as they suggest.

Energy can be recovered from thin seams by setting fire to them and allowing only enough air for a smoulder. Pumped out and cleaned up the resulting gases is rather like original Town Gas. Unfortunately even keen coal fan-boys become NIMBYs on finding their house is to have burning coal underneath!

Dave

Edited By SillyOldDuffer on 11/08/2022 19:08:59

There are massive offshore coal reserves, Cluff and others have been eyeballing them for a long time, hopefully the current situation will encourage more development.

https://www.offshore-technology.com/analysis/featureunlocking-the-uks-offshore-coal-4378702/