2-Part Covid Vaccinations

Since you guys seem to be way ahead of us in (Ontario) Canada, I have a question:

With the 2-part vaccinations, presumably you are fully protected (at least against the original strain) after the second shot. But what level of protection do you have after the first shot?

As far as I know,the immunity builds up very well after the first shot and the second is just topping off the dose. In the UK, the gap is 12 weeks between doses, to enable a greater number of people to get the first part building up the antibodies and T cells.

Hi Peter - the press has been reporting 67% today based a study of the vaccinations so far by some professor from Kings College in London.

cheers Will

Quantifying protection is difficult as much of the original testing was on the basis of a 3 week gap between inoculations. Only now is the level of protection after 12 weeks being investigated.

While the level of protection is apparently good the current advice (which may well change) is that if you were shielding before the first jab you should continue to shield until a week after the second one - at least that is what I have been advised by my consultant at a specialist chest clinic.

That begs the question what does 67% immunity actually mean? Does it mean you still have a 1 in 3 chance of becoming infected?

Edited By mike T on 14/02/2021 20:15:19

Edited By mike T on 14/02/2021 20:15:49

....... or a 1 in 3 chance of having the same chance of contracting the virus as you did prior to the vaccine 🤪

Hullo Peter,

"Bojo" looking chuffed on tonight's news as count now 15,062,xxx and it's the 15th tomorrow, so target achieved. There are more targets for much of the year.

I think its 67% up to 3wks after 1st jab and after the 12wk top up, it's around 70/80%, protection. Prevents serious illness if you should get it after the 2 jabs. I dont think the medics are certain yet about re infection or whether you can pass it on, infecting others. Have to understand that time will tell all what's going on. Virologists have to study events/ mutations etc.

" jabbed"

I think it's a percentage of protection against the worst 0%=death, 60% = really bad cold or mild flu, 95% = what infection?

BTW over 65's don't seem to need an invite any longer just go on web site and book it.

Edited By Dave Halford on 14/02/2021 21:02:28

What peope are forgetting is that even thought you may have had the injections you should follow distancing rules and wearing the mask as you could be a carrier.

Martin P

You can also still fall ill for a short while after the first injection if you have been infected, because the body needs time to build up immunity.

I am not certain that's quite right about over-65s not needing an invitation. I am 68, and received an NHS invitation only yesterday. .It says though I can book via the route it gives or wait for my local surgery to contact me. I was rather surprised as I thought I would be waiting a while yet.

My wife got a text message on Wednesday from our Surgery so we booked on line for tomorrow and on Thursday she got a letter from the local NHS, I got mine two weeks ago as I'm a part time Chemist delivery driver.

Martin P

Not the whole picture.

They reported 46% after two weeks and 67% after three. But no mention of the range or even the vaccine mix, so what we do know is that the protection is presumably still rising.

The Israelis seem to have cracked the problem - their stats show only a few infections among the vaccinated (two doses?), very few serious infections and no deaths in that cohort.

The evaluation regime is time factored. So the 67% is over the time for which the trial was conducted, probably about 3 months. Because you are not totaly immune you will have another chance to catch it over the 3-6 months following, etc.
But don't panic. What makes it work is the reduction in R value. With fewer people catching it you are less likely to meet a carrier, so even if totally unprotected you have a better chance of survival. The lack of exposure snowballs so quickly there are no cases - except the ones we import as per New Zealand and Oz.

If you think once you are vaccinated it is safe to go on a foreign holiday plese take the oportunity. You are an idiot and ...

Edited By Neil Wyatt on 15/02/2021 16:45:06

It's a mistake that all the journalist make to assume that the statistical figures quoted mean anything useful when applied to one individual. It's a mistake to particularise from statistics.

Whether you (as an individual) contract the disease is controlled more by the "hands, face, space" concept, together with the local prevalence of infected and infectious candidates.

The 67% protection figure simply means that the number of infections in a sufficiently large sample group will reduce by 67%, it doesn't follow that any one person's chances of getting infected are reduced the same. Either you get it or you don't. It does however seem to mean that the whole group (i.e. a group of a statistically significant size) is protected to a large extent from acquiring a potentially fatal illness.

Remember that the vaccination program isn't about protecting individuals. It seems to be achieving that but it's incidental. The point of the vaccination program is to change the statistics of hospitalisation, severe illness, death. On a country wide scale - a statistical sample of about 65 million individuals - even quite low effectiveness percentages give wholesale benefit to the population.

Given enough vaccination recipients, the concept of herd immunity starts to affect the mathematics, and (hopefully) our present constraints on our way of living become irrelevant. The "R" index is controlled not by physical distancing (social distancing) and precautionary measures such as shielding, but by a natural mass immunity and the consequent reduction in the number of carriers (infectors).

But (unfortunately) no-one's told the virus to play fair. We could be here some while yet.

Thanks for this gents. It gives me an overview for whenever they get around, here, to vaccinating a 78 year-old with several serious underlying health issues. Last I heard, August was being talked about. 

You guys are so lucky believe it or not.

Edited By Peter Greene on 15/02/2021 01:07:25

Peter

I have learnt during this pandemic not to take any notice of the media especially the BBC when it comes to unbiased reporting on Covid. Maybe the media in Canada is the same. Equally I take no notice of 99.9% of comments on social media.

There are plenty of peer reviewed reports and statistics available from scientific institutions and a Dr. John Campbell from Youtube who offers excellent daily comment on Covid and related issues. He never makes assumptions and always refers to scientific evidence so you can read reports and view statistical evidence for yourself. He reports on global issues as well as those specific to the UK.

For those in the UK, Private Eye has a very sensible and widely praised commentary based on the science - unfortunately publication is only fortnightly. In retrospect it has been remarkably accurate, as well as effectively demolishing the various myths and political distortions.

Edited By john halfpenny on 15/02/2021 09:16:37

Hi all, with regard to all the drivel posted on "social" media I think Doctor Jonathan Van Tam hit the nail squarely on the head when he said "when my boiler breaks down I send for a gas fitter", horses for courses then.

BobH

Nigel, I'll be finding out tomorrow morning at 08:15. My wife got the same letter at same time (she's a year older than me), the link is incomplete. If you navigate from the top of the NHS site it's not too bad to find.

I have no idea of what's happening in England but here in North Wales (Bangor area) no invitation is required for 65+. I was told last Thursday and rang the local surgery to get a contact number. I rang it but no answer so I did what the surgery staff told me to do, that was to let them know how I got on, they then booked me in from the surgery on Friday for an appointment that afternoon. No fuss, no bother just turn up and fill a form in then wait for your turn. This was at the MVC/emergency hospital in Bangor who are using the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine, other half had hers at the surgery which is using the Oxford/Astra Zeneca. I'm 66 in April she is 70 in April.

Go for it don't hang around.

Nathan.