Tony Seba’s Prediction

Mark,

14kWh x 36 houses is just a smidge over 0.5MWh. There is more than 36 houses in my road and it’s not a long road, probably average for the town. You can say “well not every house has a car” true but some houses round here have 2 and some 3, so I am happy to work on an average of 36 cars per road. Mr Google says there are 407 streets in my town. So no matter how you play it or when you actually charge, peak or off peak that’s an additional 205MWh that without changing cars is not required.

Average consumption per house per year (BEIS 2022) is 3,731 kWh (10.22kWh per day if there is still 365 days in a year). Personally I find that quite low but I have no idea proportion of flats to houses and no inclination to seek it out so let’s go with 10.22 kWh with no other “evidence” available. So an additional 14kWh is a 237% increase in power usage. No idea of the spare capacity of transformers or cables but an increase like that sounds pretty heavy to me? Most houses in centre of town are Victorian with 60a incoming

Paul.

Don't forget that soon gas heating will have to be replaced by electric too, even if using heat pumps.
Although Paul mentions multiple car families in some areas I think the average is 30% of households don't have a car and 30% have two+.

However average mileage should go down with more home working and a gradual shift back to living near work. 70 years ago car ownership was quite low, even in rural communities but most perishable goods were delivered (milk, meat, bread) and in the last few years home delivery systems have burgeoned again.

Average usage of 'medium' usage households is ~8kWh per day (link) making Mark Rand's comment even more far-fetched.

About 25% of cars in England are parked on the street overnight - that's a lot of trailing leads.

About 35% of UK homes have nowhere to park even a single vehicle, rising to 56% in London. 

(link)

It isn't going to happen.

(edit for unintended smilies)

Edited By Andy_G on 25/07/2023 01:10:08

With my experience of living in an all electric house with an air source heat pump the biggest increase in electricity used will be the heat pumps. Our yearly usage is 13000 kWh.

This what his own web-site claims:

" Tony Seba is a world-renowned thought leader, author, speaker, educator, angel investor and Silicon Valley entrepreneur. "

That is the heading line. What do " world-renowned" , "thought leader" , " educator" and " angel investor" really mean?

Along with further self-congratulations by lists of his "best-selling" books (compared to what other sales, to whom?), obscure trade-awards irrelevant outside their own formal-dinner circles, arcane lecture-circuits and the like:

" His work focuses on technology disruption, the convergence of technologies, business model innovation, organizational capabilities and product innovation that leads to the creation of new industries and societies and the collapse of existing ones. "

All the sort of fancy words that say little but impress those no cleverer than they should be.

"His work..." Oh aye? I bet he wrote it and left the web-site designer to turn it from "my" to "his".

Basically just a self-glorifier making a lot of money from business investments and complicating the simple; but it looks as if his other main earner is expounding his opinions on how to run businesses and on "green" industries.

His professional line and apparently main investing, is IT and managing IT-related companies. He has a Degree in Computer Science and Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and an MBA from Stanford Graduate School of Business.

He might make very good points. He might write a lot of rubbish. I don't know as I have not read his books nor seen his video, but I'd rather reach his work via peer accreditation.

There seem to be a lot of folk falling for the devon farmer's fallacy (my term):- "If I wanted to get there I wouldn't start from here".

Simple economics dictate that most people do/will-do most of their vehicle charging when electricity prices are lowest. This evens the local and national load out to a greater extent than the worst cases.

Parking of cars on the street (what the lamp posts are, with their connections to the local supply) and the local supply cables are just means that additional connections and metering need to be developed.

Connection times tor local charging hubs and local generation projects are no better or worse than they ever have been, with the caveat that if you and your neighbours don't want infrastructure anywhere you can see them, you won't get the benefits of said infrastructure (Bloody NIMBYs ).

generation capacity and distribution capacity have been evolving over time ever since Joseph Swan put his plant in to supply his house. It's a continuous process and there aren't any major step changes. Even the govenrment's 2030 and 2035 deadlines are not step changes. The average car age in the UK is 8.4 years and average age when scrapped is 14 years, according to Google,. This shows that the change from IC to EV won't be a sudden event and economic/commercial forces will allow needed infrastructure to be installed as required.

In the meantime, I'm still pondering on the payback calculations for putting solar panels on the youse roof to complement the 5.4kWp on the workshop roof.

Heat pump usage will be concentrated in the winter, so some of this averaging is failing to account for the peak load problems but introduction of airconditioning might increase summer load. Car heaters will reduce the mpkW in winter increasing charging load.
Not every car will be needing to be charged every day. So the 'trailing lead' problem is less than half. While a thick round wire might be seen as a problem crossing the pavement (/footway/sidewalk) some enterprising business will produce un-obstructive flat wide cables specially and bylaws will prohibit the round ones.

People who don't have a parking place but insist on having a car will have to move house. People in London are spoilt for public transport options so probably 90% don't need a car.

This may sound like an ad hominem logical fallacy to some, but I have come to realise that "Climate Change" has nothing to do with the old-fashioned, experiment-based, fallacy-avoiding science, there is a science nouveau based on consensus, how many followers you have on social media and shouting a lot when you are asked where you got your numbers from'.

Everyone is hoping for a powerful El Nino this year to push the unco-operative satellite temperature record up above the pesky 2016 el Nino high. Nobody is to ask awkward questions like, "How did the heat get from the troposphere to the sub-surface Pacific?" We will just be jolly thankful when it does.

Read, mark, learn and inwardly digest:- **LINK**

Is it really so hard to understand?

Edited By Mark Rand on 26/07/2023 11:04:55

I will see your Wikipedia and raise you Jesus Christ, "You're far too keen on how and where but not so hot on why."

Local trouble makers from 2000 years ago have nothing to do with science, the climate or how it works.

Edited By Mark Rand on 26/07/2023 13:26:45

Belief systems come in all shapes and forms

Usually relying heavily upon anecdotal and circumstantial evidence as "proof"

Look at how amazing and beautiful nature is. How we are the exact correct distance from the sun. A sun that will burn for longer than most suns ever will. How water which is essential for supporting all life freezes completely differently from all other matter. How Jupiter is placed to hoover up 99% of asteroids which would wipe us out.

This is scientific fact that is proof that God exists.(or Aliens)

See. I can do it too. Now give me lotsa money.

Edited By Ady1 on 26/07/2023 14:14:58