Electricity Supply

Colin, I think the social implications will become apparent as we roll towards all electric vehicles that households will not be able to have multiple vehicles as we do now, there will not be the power available at domestic properties for multiple charging, unless all domestic properties are supplied with 3 phase instead of single phase as now, can’t really see that is practical.

Another point that needs to be noted, despite the protestations of those against nuclear, it will always be a part of our generating mix because our nuclear submarines that carry our nuclear missiles rely on fuel that is produced as a by product from nuclear generation. We will always have nuclear reactors to provide the fuel as long as we have the subs, they are still currently building subs so needed for quite some time yet. I acknowledge that nuclear is by no means a large contributor to power generation, gridwatch illustrates that, but it won’t be allowed to disappear.

Dave W

That's all very well but this would be a major issue for families where I live. We do not have a local bus service so need cars to get around. I have 3-phase so could provide enough power to charge multiple vehicles. My daughters have left home but needed cars to get to work when they were at home. I can see people having to get up in the middle of the night to shuffle cars around to get them charged.

I am almost glad I am shutting my business down in the two months and will not be travelling around the UK as much. I think the way the country is going with speed restrictions, speed cameras, no space to park, etc. we might as well go back to the horse. Its going to be just as quick.

Colin

Colin, I understand where you are coming from, I think it is going to cause huge social upheaval, our politicians seem to be oblivious to the situation I suppose because when it all begins to bite then they will have passed from office and it will be someone else’s problems. I think there are turbulent times ahead.

Dave W

There are a number of solutions. Most folk don't travel huge distances even if they view them as such... 50 mile commutes each in a 3 car household would be extreme.

Scenarios that could happen include legislation to provide charge points where they park during the day and a full charge could well do until the next work day.

At home I can set my EV up to charge from a set time so two such cars can time slice without the need to get up and move things around so long as they are both plugged in. Indeed many chargers will be programmable.

Domestic supplies with 100A mains are common enough that 2 cars on 32A can be accommodated. Many cars can have their charge rate adjusted.. say 3 cars on 20A each still tops in some 150 mile range each on a typical EV.

Finally if/when autonomous cars become reality then many folk will stop owning a car and just book one on-line or even a car share when they need it.

Power distribution is the bigger nut to crack.

pgk

Lots of rosie figures on range, but in what conditions?

My first thoughts on this came when on a long drive in wet, cold dark conditions on a busy M6 & M6.

Yes, the lamps would be le.d. units so not taking a huge wattage; but in a battery-only car what supplies the wipers, screen-washers and demister / heater? What effect does that have on the range?

The service stations are at various distances apart but typically 20 -30 miles on that route. Some motorways have few or no service-stations. How much congestion and hours lost will result from the queues for chargers, even if a service area has, say, 30 units? How many motorists might be caught out, leading to a steady trade for the recovery services?

What's noticeable in all the public utterances from the Press and politicians is that they concentrate on commuting and shopping, local or fairly short-range trips.

I think a lot of people will be unable to travel longer distances for leisure and social purposes unless public transport is feasible for the particular journeys: in very many cases it is not. This will please the environmental campaigners who apparently never go anywhere (unless to demonstrate); but warding off changing the climate will have a huge, deleterious effect on the nation's cultural life and the multitudinous trades that support it.

The more remote areas of the country are likely to become more isolated, less populated and poorer if tourism is a major source, as that and its supporting services die off.

In many respects life will return to something like Edwardian times, when either you were wealthy enough to own a motor-car, or you went by train or charabanc so were limited in choice of destinations and their environs.

Will these battery cars be able to tow anything? If not that will make the Jeremy Clarksons of the world delirious with delight at the reduction in caravans and probably motor-caravans, and the employment supporting these interests; but remember towing also includes trailers for boats and other large outdoor-pursuits equipment, vintage vehicles and machinery, large-scale miniature engines....

Will there be trains? The Government has been chuntering about wanting diesel traction ended in the next decade or so; but will it ensure full replacements on the thousands of miles of non-electrified line? Does it have an electrification plan more cohesive than the rich variety of remarkably heavy-duty overhead wiring columns now used? Or will it just close these routes - so no passengers and freight West of Bristol and Weymouth (losing their direct connection too), and Salisbury; none in Wales except perhaps Bristol to Cardiff and Swansea, none North of Scotland's two primary cities; none in sizeable other English regions?

Or it electrifies them but how does it propose supplying them?

Meanwhile, Brexit or not, the EU is allegedly considering cutting European air lines to a minimum, with obvious effects on both business and tourism.

I think as reality dawns the Governments of the next few decades will find themselves very unpopular and faced with considerable opposition however well-meaning and necessary the restrictions.

(One review in the 1970s or 8os apparently called for closing almost the entire UK rail network, either directly or by cutting so many through-routes they would become short branch-lines that inevitably would wither way whilst also starving the remaining main lines of passengers. The Government of the day quietly shelved it. Sorry, I forget the name above its title.)

Then into that mix is the revenue the government will lose over time as EV's become more relevant currently £28 bn per year. Do they add a duty to electric supply? Road tax? tolls?

a friend drove his new Tesla from just south of Paris to just north of Bordeaux and had to stop 3 times to get the charge to make the trip.....3/4 hr per charge...not the right vehicle for the job me thinks.....

when u think of the overpriced e/vehicles forget them for the moment....

oh, do u own the batteries or are they leased....cos after say 5 years they will be junk...cost of replacement....??

then they'll want an extortion amount to dispose them

my take on it is, just dump the whole vehicle in the ocean and use it as an anchor.....

before the busy bodies get involved we need the next jump in techno....

then E/V's might be worth having.......

Nigel:

Back to some figures from experience. Cold wet winter at night using motorways (as opposed to tiny country lanes) and I'd still expect over 200 miles range. As it happens it's short trips in the cold on narrow lanes when you have to keep sowing down that when the car is 'less efficient' - but then probably an ICE is too. Nice warm dry weather and 300 miles is doable at motoreway speeds.

I live in very rural wales and it's 7 miles each way to my nearest petrol station - so unless going that way or ona trip where stops allow a fill on route with an ICE it costs me 1/2 a gallon to refill my innefficient old 200sx. Electric I can top up at home.

Yes, gov will find a way of recovering their lost fuel revenue - lots of tax ways to do that (suggestions include GPS based road usage, higher excise duty, huge tax on insurance premiums and so forth)

Yes some EV's can tow.. model X is rated thus. Yes it affects range.

Clogs:

Paris to Bordeaux. Google tells me it's circa 360 miles with superchargers en route.. It depends on which model and battery size your mate had in his Tesla. If I was doing that run in my 100D I'd start by planning a full 100% top-up overnight (309 theoretical miles range) and then find a supercharger between 200-250 miles away if possible so i can hammer my foot down without worrying about range. I'd then top up to 80% charge which would take between 45-60 mins while I pee, clean the windows of bugs and read the paper. I now have 240 miles range to complete the journey assuming charge facilities at destination. If not I'd do another top-up near that destination.

There are constant improvements. The new Model3 75KW battery on the newest superchargers (still being installed) would be able to go 1st stage similar distance but top-up in 15-20mins.

Either car could do the trip non-stop in perfect weather if it stuck to steady 60mph on motorways with light traffic When chargers are more frequent and one can avoid planning.

I wouldn't be planning if doing that trip in my aged 200sx... I'd just drive until the tank read 1/8th left and expect to find petrol within the next 30 miles. It is a guzzler at motorway speeds and 32mpg if lucky so the whole tank range is under 300 miles. I did a run from london to prague in it once. At autobahn speeds I could see the fuel needle moving and had to refuel inside 2 hrs @120mph (top speed 130)...My reflexes aren't good enough these days to drive like that but I'd feel a lot safer in my tesla at 120 (top speed 150) and even though the leccy drain would be high it'd still be lots less than the recharge rate so driving it fast and stopping more often still works out best time.

Edit: One last point. If using petrol it still takes 5 mins to refuel, another minute or three to walk to kiosk and pay and a few mins to go pee. With an EV you get out and plug-in. The car deals with the fuelling, the charger debits you account automatically. It still takes the same time to pee but you can still argue  a few mins off the refuel time differences.

Edited By pgk pgk on 09/06/2019 07:11:03

Well that brought some interesting replies. I dont't know where Mr Gilligan lives, but around here a one hour drive isn't that far if you have to go at the wrong time of day. For example, I allow 1 hour travelling to my "local" hospital, which is 20 miles away. Admittedly I'm not using full power. In fact I spend a lot of time queuing at roundabouts and waiting at red traffic lights. Then when the lights turn green and you can go, you see the next set, 100yards down the road, change to red !

The main point I was trying to raise, was the lack of suitable infrastucture and the apathy from the powers that be regarding future planning. I'm pleased to see that quite a few people agree with me.

The street where I live has about 200 houses. If you assume half of them charge their electric cars at the 32 amp rate that is 3,200 amps. One would assume the supply cables are able to handle that, but are they? I don't where the local sub station is, or how many other houses it is supplying, but is that up to the job? I've spent a lifetime in electronics, but as you can probably tell, I know very little about power distribution.

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Sorry, Anthony Mr Knights ... You missed my point completely

You cited a maximum power output, and then proceeded to base your figures on that.

I was merely pointing out that if you were using all that power ... you would travel a long distance.

Note: wheelspin at the traffic-lights doesn't count as 'using'

MichaelG.

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Edit: Proper formality introduced.

Edited By Michael Gilligan on 09/06/2019 08:13:15

The preceding discussions illustrate some impracticalities with total electric, would not the way forward be hybrid vehicles using hydrogen and electric, arguably as pollution free as all electric. Problem is our political leaders have put their money on all electric, probably not a well informed decision.

Dave W

Nice to see Cottam annd West Burton gently chugging away yesterday.

Coal, fuel of the future.

.

For the avoidance of doubt ... I believe that ^^^ to be a 'false premise'

**LINK** https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_premise

MichaelG.

I've been looking for some sort of longer term planning or strategy for NZ. I've not found one and have assumed that with a deregulated electricity industry nobody wants to be the one to put up their hand and acknowledge there could be a problem.

I have found this from the UK though which may be a start

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/739460/road-to-zero.pdf >**LINK**

At the back are links to 218 other websites or papers related to the subject.

Pete

10,000 - 12,000 mile a year is the often quoted average mileage for a car which is less than 250 miles a week, so for many people charging will not be necessary every day or if they like to keep the tank full will not be a full charge. I live in a village and car ownership for working people is essential. There are just over 1000 houses in the village (soon to be 1300) and I would say the village car population must be between 2000 and 3000. I would think the longest commute would be a 100mile round trip to London as we are near enough for quite a few people to make that trip. Commuters seem to have a sense of humour, I saw a Merc joining the M40 with the number plate M40 YYY and for some years a fence visible from the M40 had the slogan ‘Why do I do this everyday?’ Painted on it

Mike

I hope Antony won't mind me using his post as an example but reading back through the thread I see several negative remarks about 'powers that be', 'busy-bodies', 'bureaucrats. 'lifestyle-journalists', 'press and politicians', 'EU allegedly considering', 'political leaders' etc. These, like Brussels, are easy targets! Unfortunately it's difficult to see how our critical forum friends would do better because they offer no alternative solutions, other than 'not happening', 'can't happen' or 'head in the sand'.

Furthermore opinion based on a technical misunderstanding is always on thin ice. Antony started the thread by assuming that his car engine's maximum power output was delivered throughout an entire journey. Not true, and as a result he over-estimated the electrical load. Later, he conflates the time taken to do a journey with the energy consumed, which is also wrong. (An electric motor consumes no power unless the car is actually moving. It doesn't 'tick-over' at traffic lights like an IC engine.)

Sorry chaps, but I don't think irritable simplicity helps solve complex problems. Even though they make horrible mistakes too, you have to go with the Exspurts. Better trust an idiot than an ignorant idiot, especially if the ignoramus is a politician with the gift of the gab. Believe it or not, some politicians are entirely happy to get our votes by pretending to agree with daft prejudices.

I don't think Antony's slips mean he should be cast into the outer darkness and made to wear a Dunce Cap! Rather they're an opportunity to improve understanding from which we all benefit. Better to test ideas, and - if they fail the challenge - to think again.

Dave

The present problem for Hydrogen is it's commercial production is from fossil gas. There have been recent suggestions re catalysts to make electrolysis more effective but if using leccy to make hydrogen then there are inherent losses in manufacture and usage that make it pointless apart from faster refuelling. I believe there was some chap playing with direct solar power (as in focussed rays in the desert) to create a fuel from atmospheric CO2 in a net neutral way??

The holy grail must be a way to crack water to it's gasses cheaply but if then burning it (as opposed to fuel cells) you have all the wear of reciprocating engines and lubricants.

Clogs: Latest EV batteries are reducing their cobalt contents, improving charge densities etc and most come with 8yr warranties and there is a lot done with recycling and recovering the lithium. There's even suggestion on the horizon for combining traditional batteries with new capacitor tech which theoretically speeds up getting a charge into the car.

Few people criticise solar panels but they have a finite life and heaven knows how they're going to get recycled or dumped and their manufacture is hardly pollution free either. The same applies to wind turbines - 20-25yrs life and need a lot of lubrication and maintenance too.

The real bottom line is that folk need to stop being so greedy, stop making so many unnecessary journeys, a cultural change from consumerism and control the population. None of that will happen. It's telling on society when folk have to go to a gym to get excercise and we import 70% of our food 'cos no-one want to pick the stuff.

(I say that as someone who's about to go to the gym despite 50 acres of land but that's cos my back problems limit the type of excercise I can do - but at least i pick my own fruit)

pgk

In NZ the NZTA publish the vehicle registration statistics. In 2018 there was in the order of 200,000 new vehicle registrations. Those vehicles ranged from scooters to articulated trucks and larger.

The power ratings for every vehicle is given, and the average power of all the vehicles was around 100Kw. If the average annual mileage is assumed to be 10,000 miles (or 16000km) at say an average speed of 50km/hr then the average usage is 320hrs/year. Now those vehicles aren't going to be driven at full power so let’s say they are driven at 20% of the max power.

So 20% x 100Kw x 320hrs x 200,000 vehicles = 1,280,000 Megawatt/hrs of generation would be required. That’s a 150Megawatt power station running 24x7

There are 4Million vehicles registered in NZ. If they eventually all became electric then the power generation required would be 20 times that required for the 2018 registrations. That would be a 3,000Megawatt power station. The total generation capacity in NZ is currently 9,237Megawatts.

OK I accept there will be many other factors to be taken into consideration but surely somebody in the industry is doing a detailed analysis of what will be required and coming up with answers? Particularly; if we do need to generate this additional power how do we get it to where it is needed?

Doubletop:

Did you get MW and GW mixed up? More to the point is when the power is required and total GWhours. I guess that's one of the reasons for the farce over 'smart' metering to push folk to using leccy when there is spare capacity and potentially time-slice consumers?