Arc

It's never that simple... look back at hstorical data of exchange rates and 1985 for instance. While brexit has a major role it's really all about manipulation. Every time a bigwig opens his mouth the currencies fuctuate and you can bet they told their mates first.

pgk

It's never that simple... look back at hstorical data of exchange rates and 1985 for instance. While brexit has a major role it's really all about manipulation. Every time a bigwig opens his mouth the currencies fuctuate and you can bet they told their mates first.

pgk

Cynic

Roy

Edited By roy entwistle on 16/09/2018 14:26:38

Or realist perhaps. But let's not get too political or the moderators will send us to the naughty chair.

The terms and conditions. This is where the detail matters. The exit options on March 29th are:

1. Negotiations fail acrimoniously resulting in customs checks on everything moving in and out of the country, a market panic due to absence of a legal basis for financial transactions with Europe, and instant export restrictions.
2. Negotiations fail in a friendly way allowing some form of emergency cooperation until a deal is agreed later. There is currently no agreement on what 'emergency cooperation' might mean in practice, or how long 'later' might be, but the EU isn't against it because, in effect, we leave the EU without leaving the EU.
3. World Trade Organisation rules. A general 5% tariff on all British goods exported to Europe except where higher tariffs apply to cars etc. Other barriers to trade with the UK as per European Single Market rules.
4. Canada Plus. A trade arrangement similar to that already existing between Canada and the EU. Less painful to the UK than WTO Rules but requires a hard border in Northern Ireland while Northern Ireland splits off economically and remains a member of the European Customs Union.
5. Norway moving to Canada Plus. UK stays in the European Economic Area while negotiating a Canada Plus deal within the next 10 years. Possibly avoids the need for a hard border in Northern Ireland at the cost of staying in the EEA.
6. Chequers. UK aligns to the single market by agreeing a 'Common Rule Book' allowing frictionless trade. It's a 'part membership' deal that minimises border issues. Separate arrangements needed to cover science, research, military, security, space and aviation.
7. Blind Brexit. Failure to agree detail of Chequers by March 29th but signing the withdrawal agreement anyway. Requires a transition plan and an 'Irish backstop'. Kicks the can down the road, effectively providing more time to negotiate difficult details. Signing contracts that agree to agree generally end in tears.
8. Reversal. Option open until midnight March 29th. Most likely triggered by a General Election result or Second Referendum that does not support carrying on with Brexit.

Government policy is No 6 (Chequers) because it's the least painful financially and sorts out most border problems. Unfortunately Chequers is controversial inside the Conservative Party although the objectors haven't suggested an alternative. Some Brexit supporters don't believe that Chequers is Brexit.

The exit terms and conditions are not set by the UK alone - they all have to be negotiated with the Union. It's not clear to me how close the UK and Europe are to agreeing anything. The EU would prefer the UK not to leave, but if we do, Single Market Rules will apply just as they do to other non-member countries. They don't seem interested in supporting pro-British solutions and certainly not any favourable deal that would encourage other countries to jump ship.

Nor does there seem to be any solid UK progress yet on agreeing trade deals with the rest of the world. At the moment it seems likely that World Trading Organisation rules will be applied to all UK trade by default at least for a decade or two.

We live in exciting times!

Dave

"May you live in interesting times." - Supposed Chinese curse.

Russell

Yes lets keep it to the thread heading or I will have to start clicking my delete button, all that Neil's fault

Indeed... stupid to think I could make a joke without someone taking it as licence...

I think I'll lock this as it will just keep going otherwise. The original point has been answered long ago.

Neil