Will the lights stay on this winter?

Much of the outcry about profits is generated because firstly they are staggering amounts of money; but secondly we are not usually told the profit-margin, nor its financial context generally, in the general news.

Also, many people (including me) find high-falutin' finance just too falutin' to comprehend.

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I do rather take issue with those boasting about their super solid-fuel stoves, tons of logs and gallons of oil for their umpteen-kW generators out in the shed.

All right for you.

Some of us have to make do without any of that sort of thing.

The most I could do is buy a small caravan-type generator to run one or two essentials like the 'fridge and a couple of portable lamps. It might run a 'phone charger (fortunately my land-line is still wire-fed... but that relies on BT's supply being still there); but I'd be reluctant to power a PC off it for noise and transient reasons. Anyway, if the land-line failed I'd have no Internet service.

I would have no central-heating / hot-water either, not without electricity to operate the gas-fuelled boiler and its pumps. This is a point made to me by a plumber friend who says he does become annoyed by gormless News interviewees saying a propo an unusually long electricity cut, "Well, at least we've got gas central heating" .

Though assuming the gas is still available (hmmm, through an electrically-powered, so-called "smart" -meter?) I could boil water on the stove for tea, washing-up as I do anyway, and strip-washes standing in the bath.

I could keep warm by hacksawing and filing rather than milling metal, in a workshop probably sufficiently warmer than the poorly-insulated home would be, to use as "bedroom" too!

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..... And I realise there are many potentially far worse off than me, in all-electric homes and no-where to put a generator, assuming they can afford one.

We have had two severe ice storms here in the midsouth (US) in the last 30 years, and one was in deep snow, and lasted 2 weeks for us, and 3 weeks for many in this city.

I was lucky to quickly find a generator for my invalid father in law, but it I had to drive through 30" of snow, and many fallen trees partially blocking the road, plus downed power lines.

I did not have a generator for my house, and so we had to get creative.

We did have a fireplace, and so cut up wood and built a fire.

We lived in front of the fireplace for two weeks.

We cooked on a dual burner propane gas stove.

Oddly enough, by the time it was over, we were rather sad to see the quiet life go away, and all the hustle and bustle of the city come back.

It was a very pleasant and relaxing two weeks, apart from the wood chopping I guess.

Photos of the frontier folk's shacks showed a wood stove with a compartment on the side which held hot water.

Food was preserved in salt, as well as goods that had been canned, and grains.

Lights were oil lamps. I think we actually used candles in each room, which were put in glass containers so as not to burn down the house.

The temperature inside the house was about 32 degrees in the rooms besides the one with the fireplace, and so one had to use multiple blankets on the beds.

Our water did not go out, but if it had, we would have melted snow and boiled it.

Some folks used the white gas powered Coleman stoves, and those work well too, but are not as simple as the propane ones.

Some grilled out every day on the BBQ grille, using either propane or charcoal.

The perishable food could be stored outside in a cooler, since it was cold outside.

Canned food is very handy, and generally can be eaten without cooking or heating if it comes to that.

You can always boil water on the stove and wash clothes.

An insulated work suit (coveralls) is handy to have if you have to go outside on cold days, to chop wood or whatever.

But like they say in the Boyscouts, "Be Prepared".

Go through the mental exercise of getting ready.

Better yet, go out and open the main breaker to your house, and then figure out how to live for a week.

It can be done. Nobody use to have electricity, gas, etc.

We purchased a tiny pop-up camper a few years ago, and we had a week-long power outage during the summer about a year ago. We used a 1KW generator to power the small A/C unit in the camper, and spent a lot of time in it, including sleeping in it all week.  It is well insulated, and has a propane heater.  A 600W electric heater is sufficient to keep it at 70F in the winter.

I went backpacking in the moutains of New Mexico for 10 days, and I wore quick-dry synthetic clothes, and just rolled in streams that we passed to clean up.

We had to carry and cook all of our own food, and carry water filters for drinking water.

No toilets, no showers, no phones, no TV, no magazines, it often rained hard, sometimes with sleet and snow, with elevations varying between 8,000 and 12,500 feet.

We did cook hot food and coffee on tiny propane or white gas stoves, and that was a luxury.

One really apreciates the good life after spending ten days in the stark wilderness.

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Edited By PatJ on 29/07/2022 18:48:15

It's not immediately clear to me why electricity derived from renewable resources should be expected to be less expensive at the consumer level than that obtained from other sources.

Rather the opposite in fact, else why haven't we been doing it for decades? The net cost is undoubtedly cheaper but there are a whole lot of other costs in there before it gets to the consumer including paying off the capital costs of the generation equipment.

Ultimately it will get relatively cheaper, if only because alternative methods become significantly more expensive or are outlawed altogether.

Nigel,

A few years ago I had a generator that I was going to use to power my gas central heating during power cuts, I was able to isolate the electrical supply to the boiler and fed it via a 13 amp socket which meant that in the event of a power cut I could unplug the boiler supply from the mains and plug the boiler into the output from my small generator, the theory seemed so simple but it didn’t work because the output from my generator was too coarse, it needed a generator with an inverter output in order for the circuits in the boiler to work, I didn’t progress that idea any further. Your comment about sleeping in the workshop struck a cord with me, my workshop is infinitely better insulated than my house, although the house has cavity and roof insulation with all windows double glazed. Dave W

Last year the USA was the largest producer of crude oil in the world, about 12.1 million barrels per day. Unfortunately, being the biggest isn't good enoughbecause the USA is also the largest consumer of oil in the world, using nearly 20 million barrels of oil per day.

The "third world countries" filling the gap are:

• Canada — 4,783,000
• Mexico — 645,000
• Saudi Arabia — 550,000
• Russia — 405,000
• Colombia — 228,000
• Iraq — 223,000
• Ecuador — 219,000
• United Kingdom — 126,000
• Nigeria — 110,000
• South Korea — 102,000

The USA doesn't beg: Uncle Sam buys oil on the international market. And it being a market means prices rise whenever demand outstrips supply, which is the case at the moment. Demand is high due to the world economy bouncing back after COVID and supply is reduced due to Putin invading Ukraine. In the UK complicated by economic changes due to leaving the EU, and many other countries have local issues that make the experience painful.

Oil producers are making large profits because they decide which customer gets oil in a shortage by selling it to whoever pays the most for it. Prices are shooting up because plenty of rich customers are bidding for oil on the wholesale market. The rich USA is likely to win rather than lose oil auctions, but the extra cost is transferred to the consumer. The lights stay on in Pat's house, and go out in Sri Lanka...

Producers could increase output by digging more wells, building more storage and refineries and buying more super-tankers, but - in their view - the economic bounce back and Putin's War are both temporary. They have no wish to spend money on facilities that won't pay off in the long run. No doubt oil producers are having their arms twisted by governments around the world who are terrified citizens will blame them, so let's wait and see.

The crisis has nothing to do with 'Green' other than to underline the need to manage dependence on fossil fuels. Assuming we can carry on regardless won't end well. Given time societies can make the necessary adjustments but it won't happen unless far more people twig the need for change is now urgent. The deniers are running us out of road.

Dave

The crisis has a lot to do with 'green' due to poor decision by European countries closing coal and nuclear facilities and relying on unreliable wind and solar buoyed up by cheap imported Russian power to keep the illusion that everything was working fine, look at the number of power stations we have shut in the mad rush to gain some sort of green glory, stations that we need when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing, a very common occurrence. Have a look at the gridwatch website, it puts a bit of truth into the green spin we are fed.

There is thankfully a huge amount of drilling going on around the world at the moment, 78% of the avaliable drilling units in Europe are on contact as we speak, the picture across the globe is showing a similar upturn.

Edited By Ebenezer Good on 29/07/2022 19:38:39

Edited By Ebenezer Good on 29/07/2022 19:39:19

As I understand it, the political members responsible for the last regime change in the US have put the screws to the US oil companies via limiting their access to money/loans/financing.

The green folks here have declared war on coal, oil, and even nuclear and natural gas.

It is insanity on a massive scale. Sort of like setting fire to the bottom of a tree, when you are at the top.

We were exporting energy right up until the regime change.

And duffer is right, who wants to spend a lot of money on capacity that probably won't be needed once the recession kicks into high gear.

I must say I am not too keen on nuclear energy ("Nucular" as George Bush use to say).

But I would not cut my own throat to spite nuclear. I would rather have nuclear than freeze to death, or roast alive in the summertime.

We can have four weeks or more above 100 F in the summer, with 70% (+) humidity.

They added all sorts of scrubbers in the local coal plant, but it was shut down for political reasons.

They built a natural gas fired plant right next to the coal plant, but of course the greenies will shut that down too.

I recall an old refrigerator that had a dumbell looking contraption, which was two spherical tanks joined by a pipe.

One pipe went out though a hole in the wall, and a fire was made under it.

The other sphere went in the refrigerator.  We may have to get back to such simple devices.

I have also seen natural gas refrigerators that work on the same principle.

It is getting rather pricey to travel these days, and filling up the gas tank feels like taking out a loan for a house.

We have basically stopped buying anything that is not immediately necessary, and critically necessary.

We were considering purchasing a new car, but will now be doing the Cuban thing with our 10 year old car, so that it will last 50 years.

Our spending now is basically tailored as if another Great Depression is coming.

Hope for the best, but plan for the worst, as they say.

If we only have a mild recession, then we are ahead of the game.

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Edited By PatJ on 29/07/2022 20:39:08

Pat J, you may be right there are all the signs of an impeding Great Depression. Dave W

I quizzed my grandmother about how she and my grandfather survived the Great Depression.

She summed it up pretty easily as "Don't owe anyone any money".

She also told a story which I have never been able to verify, but she said that my grandfather, who owned his own lumber mill, was getting his shoes shined (this use to be a common thing), and the shoe shine boy said "I just shined the shoes of two bankers, and they said the stock market is getting ready to crash".

My grandfather supposedly immediately sold all of his stock holdings for cash.

I am not sure if the shoe shine boy story is true, but I have lived by the adage of not borrowing money, or if I borrow money, it is a 5 year or less situation.

My wife and I have only purchased one new piece of furniture in our 37 years of marriage, which was a new couch. The rest of our furniture is used and/or hand-me-downs.

I run my own consulting firm, and I survived 2008/2009 by selling my office building and moving my company into the 2nd floor of my house.

Working out of one's house is pretty recession-proof.

A guy who ran a local Chinese restaurant told me that the way to make it no matter what is to run a small grocery store. People have to buy food, and you will always have food.

We always keep our autos for at least 10 years, sometimes more.

I do almost all my own repairs around the house; electrical, plumbing, painting, siding, woodwork, floor refinishing, sheetrock, etc.  I do auto work too if it is not too complex.

I bought a commercial washing machine, which cost double what a residential unit cost, but it lasts perhaps 5 times longer.

I do all my own yard work, cut down my own trees, and cast gray iron in my backyard foundry.

I guess I am sort of a do-it-yourselfer, and a bit of a survivalist, but not a whack-job survivalist.

We keep about 10 cases of can goods on the shelf, a 25 lb bag or rice in an airtight container, water filters (from the backpacking days), propane, cook stove. We buy food from a bulk store, since that is a lot cheaper.

I have two generators, a 1.5kW and a 5kW, and since I run my business out of the house, they are both inverter-equipped.

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Edited By PatJ on 29/07/2022 21:19:30

Pat J,

You are my kind of guy, I often aspire to many of the things you do, my daughters are always accusing me of being a hoarder and I tackle most jobs like you do, plumbing, electrics and in my younger days bricklaying, carpentry and plastering, must admit I hated the plastering only did it of necessity to save money. Dave W

I have always liked to build/make my own stuff, even as a kid.

I could never play sports, and was the one they always told "go play somewhere by yourself while we play this baseball game".

If you can't play sports, then that sort of leaves a few other things to do, and so I passed the time by making things.

I do my almost all of my own home repairs because many of the local contractors are rip-off artists, and they assume that you don't know enough about what they are saying to object.

One HVAC guy many years ago charged me $350.00 for a "new relay".

I opened the air handling unit, and the old relay was missing.

I called him and asked if he had installed a new relay, and he assured me on a stack of bibles that he had.

I said "Then why is there no relay in the unit". He was a bit shocked, and finally said "Well the cost of the trip out makes it the same amount, and you really don't need a time-delay relay".  The unit is less efficient without the fan-off delay.

Diddo on auto repairs that are not done by a reputable dealer.

I took my car in to get two new tires on the front, and came back later to pick it up, and they handed me a bill for several thousand dollars of unnecessary engine work. They assumed I knew nothing about auto engines, but I use to help a buddy of mine rebuild his racing engines, and I knew everything about an auto engine.

It is a bluff game, and if you are dumb enough to sign the form, then they do thousands of dollars of unnecessary work. That was my first and last visit to that rip-off shop.  Needless to say I only paid for two tires, and they were very lucky that they did not do the engine work without getting my authorization first, else they would have done that for free.

I don't like people BS'ing me about stuff. It makes my blood boil, and it is an expensive scam too.

The general public gets scammed all the time around here. I guess it is a worldwide thing.

And all too often, a contractor will do a shoddy job, which also bothers me greatly, and he will assume that I don't know any better. I end up having to redo half of their work.

So I learned early on to just do it my self, and do it right the first time.

Knowledge is power as they say, and knowledge is also money.

As the US and UK lose their technological edge to other countries, the last thing in the world I want to do is give up any technical knowhow.

I basically want to know how to do anything and everything.

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Edited By PatJ on 30/07/2022 04:21:44

It's all by design.

I would like to see all the "charges" itemised seperately on a bill, ALL of them, no exceptions