How Much is this Costing Me?

Blowlamp reminds us of 'one of the problems we have'

Can i remind us of another - the tendency, when we don't know what is going on, or why, to invent fairy stories and spread them around as if they were 'gospel'. Well, there's a clue there - this has been going on a long long time.

Please, everyone, if you don't know the facts with a good degree of certainty, guess if you like, but DO IT SILENTLY.

Thanks - Tim

The simple answer to the original question can surely be gleaned by giving up all machining work for a month, then compare usage. Of course you may during that time put the kettle on more and negate any difference.

with regard to power bills (and mortgages) WE have no say in the overall price determined by market rates, it is not a case of blindly accepting what is happening as we have no control.

I note you have not listed our OTHER options!

Charity, food banks, soup kitchens are the norm for a lot of people - where have you been?

the scenario is already here and it is not only in this country, look around you, open your eyes and get your head out of the sand.

I remember mortgage rates of 15% and having no say in the matter other than to lump it and pay up.

If you do not know why energy prices have risen, you need to get out more, the facts are there but you seem to just ignore them.

there are non so blind as those that do not want to see.

come on! we are waiting for your solution...........

I've raised points, you've agreed with them, then you tell me I'm too blind to see and have my head in the sand and then you tell me to provide a solution.

I'd be genuinely interested in your explanation of energy price rises as I really do not know why this is happening

Martin.

But everything we perceive is a fairy story constructed by our brain to explain the electro-chemical signals coming in from out eyes and ears etc to our brain. It doesn't actually see anything. It just receives a bunch of signals and constructs a mental picture of what it thinks is out there. We have no way of knowing if the universe we think is out there is actually out there or is just a communal fairy story that we all agree upon.

Silence resumed.

If I never open the box to check the castings are unmachined, have I made a Quorn?

Neil

Blowlamp seeks to know why energy prices have risen.

1. Demand has risen as
a. lots of folk set off on their world-tour holidays
b. Lots of firms have returned to full production
c. etc

2. Supply has reduced because of
a. attempts to reduce emissions:
b. war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia
c. etc

Simple economics - increased demand increases prices as users compete for supplies, reduced supply increases prices as users compete for supplies.

Still not sure? Ask yourself - why are diamonds more costly than sand?

Hopper views everything as fairy stories, but in my view, some of those fairy stories are backed by evidence - which can be repeated and tested and makes sense. Of course, relying on this does rely on the existence of, and confidence in, sense. Other theories are available, but many of them don't work.

Regards, Tim

Edited By Tim Stevens on 09/08/2022 11:10:57

Neil - I suggest you ask Mr Schroedinger. He might know (but I doubt it).

Cheers, Tim

Aha! The famous Schrodinger's Quorn, both made and unmade. All those ball handles lying in wait for someone to open the box and catch them unawares.

But that evidence and those test results are once again relayed to the brain as electro-chemical signals and the brain constructs its own fairy story to explain the input. So we are confirming fairy stories with fairy stories.

For instance, it is entirely possible that the entire universe and everything in it was created just 15 minutes ago, complete with its full human population equipped with embedded false memories of their lives so far and of world history etc and false Roman ruins, fossils and carbon dating etc. We have no way of knowing if this is true or not true.

Edited By Hopper on 09/08/2022 11:40:22

You could never be certain. As an American judge has just said, believing something doesn't make it true.

Goodness me, Hopper, philosophy on a Tuesday morning.

Yes, you are right, in so far as I cannot prove that you are wrong. But in order to survive, we learn early on to follow certain conventions which work out to be useful, as long as others do the same. We say 'The sun is bright today' on the basis of a convention that what we percieve as (or think we do) a blob in the sky which dazzles us whenever we gaze at it is called The Sun, and so ad infinitum.

If we don't accept these conventions, nothing I write here will mean to you anything remotely like what I intend it to mean, so is there any point in pretending to discuss the matter further?

Yours conventionally - Tim

Assuming what you say to be facts and not just 'fairy stories':

How does going on holiday affect the price of domestic gas & electric - has it ever in the past?

In connection with this, I assume you are aware that many airports have restricted the number of flights per day, so activity is actually reduced.

One would think that factories working at full capacity is a good thing and would allow energy suppliers to compete for business, thus reducing prices - what has changed?

"Simple economics - increased demand increases prices as users compete for supplies, reduced supply increases prices as users compete for supplies."

Any reduced supply has come about as a result of policy decisions, rather than the Earth's energy supplies running out, so must be self-inflicted.

I'm sure I heard somewhere that the UK only got 4% of its energy from Russia.

So according to you, prices can now only ever go up, regardless of demand. This seems to be a change from the 'simple economics' of yesteryear.

Have you seen this years profit figures for gas & oil companies?

Diamonds are rarer than sand and so cost more. If you mean why are they ludicrously expensive, then that is down to marketing and the fact that supply is artificially restricted and has been for a long time.

Martin.

This is getting silly. It's not all a conspiracy. When demand exceeds supply the price goes up. European nations have artificially reduced supply by trying to not buy Mr Putin's gas. We don't buy Mr Putin's gas and oil, but those who used to are now trying to buy from the Arabs and other suppliers, who have chosen not to increase their output, so the price goes up. Supply and demand doesn't always work, sometimes a producer decides he can make more money by selling less at a higher price, but there is naff all the buyer can do about it except perhaps invade the gas producing countries. Somehow I don't see that ending well. We should never have got ourselves in the position of being dependant on overseas suppliers, but we are where we are. Had we gone for nuclear in a big way 20 years ago we wouldn't be here now, and we could still use fracking to get gas to tide us over the transition. With fairly minor mods I could run my car on gas (CNG) Greenies won't like it because they think we can turn off the gas now. The ~20% of electricity we generate from nuclear will rapidly tail off as we haven't built any new ones since 1995 and existing stations are rapidly coming to end of life. France generates ~80% of its electricity from Nukes, but even they are struggling as the rivers which supply cooling water are drying up. Fortunately we have the sea all round, which is unlikely to dry up.

As a side issue. When I have a bath/shower or wash up, all the lovely hot water goes down the drain. Can't I have a micro heat pump to push the heat back into a clean hot water tank?

Duncan - yes of course you can. You will need a significant space(see below*) to put the devices in, and it is not likely that the output, even if you have shower after every meal, will match the cost of the installation or its servicing. *And of course, the only spare space in the average house to put such a thing is where the shower used to go.

Cheers, Tim

Edited By Tim Stevens on 09/08/2022 17:17:44

Duncan -

Well, you could try making such a system but I think the heat salvaged would be quite low, with its gain partly lost by the electricity driving the pump.

.

I don't use my gas boiler for the washing-up despite being only a few feet from the sink, because the bowl is overflowing by the time the water reaches the appropriate temperature. It's more efficient to boil a plain kettle holding about the right amount of water, on the gas-ring.

On which I have started using all that excess but free, astronomical infra-red radiation by putting said kettle out in it. It does not heat the water enough for washing, let alone mashing tea, but may save a few paid-for therms, BTU, kJ or whatever else we are meant to count 'em in.

Right, tea-break over. Back to the workshop for an hour or so. Steam-wagons don't get built by talking about washing-up.

But a kettle on a gas ring is so inefficient in terms of energy in to hot water out you are as well using an electric kettle. Unless of course it's winter and you want the wasted heat to warm the room. I have considered burgling the gas boiler control system so that I can remotely stop the gas but leave the water running to get at the hot water left in the pipes, my boiler is a long way from the kitchen sink. However it will probably remain on the to-do list. Have to be absolutely certain it couldn't turn the gas on with no water flow.

Up at the ME club we have a kettle with a load of coils of wire spot welded to the underside. This boils water much faster than the normal kettle due to higher efficiency, but I've never seen one on sale

Alas, who believes in fairy stories? We do! Shall we vote for the nice lady promising tax cuts or the chap who says they're unaffordable and will cause more inflation? Of course we vote for the promise of tax cuts , and don't care if they never materialise or inflation takes off! Much easier to believe in a comforting fib than an unpleasant truth.

People want to go on holiday because COVID isn't causing too much trouble at the moment. But they want to fly before the aeronautical system has recovered from a couple of years of almost zero activity. Equipment has been mothballed and staff laid off, and now lots of people want to travel than there's not enough capacity to take them. Putting an airliner back into service isn't as simple as whipping off a dust sheet and turning a key. After the COVID restart the economy is running like a badly neglected engine.

'One would think that factories working at full capacity is a good thing and would allow energy suppliers to compete for business, thus reducing prices' is a misunderstanding. That's what happens when supply is in surplus. Unfortunately a shortage is forcing factory owners to bid against each other, and prices are rising exactly as theory says they will. Prices drop when customers have plenty of choice.

UK was getting about 8% of it's energy from Russia, not 4%, but many other European countries were far more dependent. Now Germany, Poland, and most of middle Europe are competing to make up the gap. Not getting fuel from Russia is making the shortage due to COVID recovery much worse and it will stay that way until more can be supplied from elsewhere. The Russian difficulty is due to a policy decision, but not one anyone on this forum can influence. Mr Putin will be delighted if Martin and I shiver next winter because he hopes the resulting discontent will put incompetent far-left or far-right politicians in charge of all countries who disagree with him. (Either type of idiot will do provided he comes out on top.) Point is, no-one is independent. Used to be said that if the US economy sneezed the rest of the world caught a cold. Now almost any economy in trouble upsets all the others because the world is much more interconnected.

Tim's diamond versus sand example was slightly unfortunate, but even if the price of diamonds floated freely they'd still be far more expensive than sand. How about Steel Rebar and Rhodium? Rebar is trading today at $611 per metric ton, and Rhodium is $14,800 per ounce. Rhodium being much rarer than Iron...

Understanding actual cause and effect rather than relying on gut feel is important because getting the answer wrong matters! Never works well when engineers fix the wrong thing or use inappropriate methods. Other fields are the same: people mess up unless they put the effort in! Don't reject Tim's comments just because they're bad news. Understand the rules, review the evidence, and act accordingly. Simply blaming someone else rarely helps - better to make friends unless they really are guilty, and sometimes even then!

Dave

A cheap way to get hot water with the weather we are having at the moment is to leave you watering hose laid out in the sun full of water of course.

CS